【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（20260105 - 20260111)

Group 1: Market Overview - The spring market is characterized by continuous opportunities for long positions, with a significant increase in risk appetite. There are no major downside risks, only potential short-term corrections after market rallies, suggesting that overall profit-making effects may continue to spread to higher levels [6] - The spring theme remains focused on industrial sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and nuclear fusion, which are expected to yield the strongest profit-making effects. The A-share pricing in the primary market is at a turning point, with venture capital and investments in unlisted tech leaders showing high elasticity [7] Group 2: Industry Comparison - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation of A-shares shows that the CSI All Share (excluding ST) has a PE of 22.4x and a PB of 1.9x, which are at the 83rd and 49th historical percentiles, respectively. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has a PE of 12x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 65th and 45th percentiles [10] - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include real estate, automation equipment, retail, chemical pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Meanwhile, industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include defense and military, electronics (semiconductors), and communications [10] Group 3: Asset Allocation - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, and expectations of fiscal and monetary easing are supporting the rise of precious metals. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in Iran and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are expected to lead to significant increases in oil prices [11] Group 4: Thematic Investment - The commercialization of brain-machine interfaces is accelerating, with significant events expected in 2026, such as mass production of brain-machine interface devices and the launch of humanoid robot production lines [12][14] - Key catalytic time nodes for six future industries have been identified, providing investors with reference points for tracking developments in quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, and 6G technology [13][17] Group 5: Service Industry Insights - The service industry in China is increasingly integrating technology, with strong companies emerging in sectors such as fintech, logistics, enterprise services, and healthcare. These companies leverage innovation, technology empowerment, and ecosystem integration to achieve leading positions in the global market [15] - Various countries have adopted different core models and policies to support their service industries, such as the U.S. focusing on innovation-driven models and Germany emphasizing manufacturing-service integration [16] Group 6: Stock Buybacks and Dividends - In December, the total amount of stock buybacks and increases in shareholding decreased by 31% month-on-month, primarily due to a 70% drop in the amount of increase applications. However, the implementation of buybacks in A-shares saw a significant increase of 97% [22]