黄金白银双创新高，下一个关键阻力位在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and increasing global interest rate cut expectations [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, COMEX gold futures reached over $4600 per ounce, with a daily increase exceeding 2%, while spot gold hit a record high of $4601.38 per ounce [2]. - Silver prices also saw significant gains, with spot silver peaking at $84.02 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 5.7% to $83.9 per ounce [2]. - Domestic markets reflected this trend, with SHFE gold closing at 1,026.96 yuan per gram (up 2.64%) and SHFE silver at 20,651.00 yuan per kilogram (up 12.82%), marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military involvement in Venezuela and its control over oil, have heightened market risk aversion, supporting the rise in precious metal prices [3]. - The ongoing U.S. fiscal risks, exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies and previous government shutdowns, have led to increased skepticism about U.S. fiscal sustainability, driving funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Central banks globally continue to show strong interest in gold, with China's gold reserves reaching 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306 tons) by December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue, with the market likely seeking a new trading range after surpassing historical highs, targeting the next psychological resistance at $4800 per ounce [5]. - The rise in precious metals may also influence other metal assets, as gold and silver possess both financial and industrial attributes, potentially leading to increased interest in copper, platinum, and other metals [5]. - It is noted that metals like palladium, platinum, and copper are more influenced by their own supply-demand fundamentals, and the rise in precious metals may also be linked to narratives around global supply chain restructuring and strategic resource autonomy [5].