鲍威尔遭刑事调查，将对全球资本市场带来什么冲击？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and has led to global market volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Background of the Investigation - The investigation was triggered by the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters, with the budget increasing from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, and accusations of Powell making "false statements" regarding the project [3]. - The deeper issue lies in the ongoing conflict over monetary policy, particularly after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, where he pressured the Fed for significant interest rate cuts to reduce government debt costs and stimulate economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Political Implications - The investigation appears politically motivated, approved by a Trump ally, and coincides with Trump's plans to announce Powell's successor in early 2026 [4]. - Powell has responded strongly, claiming the investigation is a "political pressure tactic" aimed at forcing the Fed to comply with demands for interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Trump's Motivations for Rate Cuts - Trump seeks rapid interest rate cuts for political gain, to create an appearance of economic prosperity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, and to alleviate debt pressures, as U.S. national debt exceeded $37.7 trillion by the end of 2025 [5]. - A 1% reduction in interest rates could save the government nearly $400 billion annually in interest payments, which is significant given that interest expenses accounted for about 27% of federal revenue in 2025 [5]. - Additionally, rate cuts are seen as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs on U.S. businesses and consumers, thereby stabilizing the economy and capital markets [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the investigation, safe-haven assets surged, with gold prices rising 1.88% to over $4,600 per ounce, and silver increasing by over 4% to reach historical highs [8]. - The U.S. dollar and stock markets faced pressure, with the dollar index dropping 0.3% and S&P 500 futures declining by 0.5% [8]. Group 5: Potential Global Impact - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it may lead to irrational interest rate cuts, potentially increasing U.S. inflation and affecting global bond pricing [9]. - The dollar's reserve status could be questioned, accelerating the trend of de-dollarization globally [9]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 27-28, 2026, will be a critical point to observe for market reactions [9].