委内瑞拉变局对OPEC是“大麻烦”，美国有望控制“全球30%储量”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's initiative to revamp Venezuela's oil fields and market its output, which could allow the U.S. to control production from an OPEC founding member and disrupt the global oil market [2]. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Production Outlook - Some OPEC members believe that if the Venezuelan government modifies regulations to attract U.S. investors, the country could increase production by 2 million barrels per day within one to three years, up from the current less than 1 million barrels [3]. - Saudi Arabia is currently taking a wait-and-see approach, assessing that restoring Venezuela's production will take years and that U.S. companies need legal frameworks and guarantees before investing billions to repair Venezuela's infrastructure [3]. Group 2: U.S. Influence on Oil Market - The U.S. strategy regarding Venezuela could complicate OPEC's efforts to manage the market, as large reserves would fall under U.S. control, distancing them from OPEC [5]. - A recent report from JPMorgan indicates that this shift could give the U.S. greater influence over the oil market, potentially keeping prices at historically low levels and reshaping the power balance in the international energy market [5]. Group 3: Current Oil Price Trends - Due to increased global production and concerns about the global economy, oil prices have significantly dropped, with Brent crude currently trading around $63 per barrel and U.S. benchmark crude around $59 per barrel, both down about 20% from a year ago [7]. - Analysts have been revising down oil price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting an average price of $58 for Brent and $54 for U.S. crude this year, with expectations of even lower prices next year [7]. - The ongoing low oil prices are expected to pressure global producers' profits and budgets, with prices falling below $50 per barrel potentially harming the U.S. shale oil industry, which has largely ignored Trump's calls for increased production [7].