锗 | 行业动态：国内商业航天发展加速，锗行业重估在即

Industry Overview - China applied for over 200,000 satellite frequency resources from ITU by December 2025, with over 190,000 from the newly established Radio Innovation Institute, indicating that satellite frequency resource applications have reached a national strategic level [1] - The acceleration of domestic commercial aerospace development and increased defense spending may drive the demand for germanium, with limited supply growth and declining inventory suggesting that germanium prices are likely to stabilize and rebound, indicating an impending industry revaluation [1] Comments - The acceleration of domestic commercial aerospace development is expected to boost the demand for germanium substrates in gallium arsenide batteries, which are core materials for space solar cells [2] - In 2024, the demand for germanium in satellite photovoltaics is projected to account for 15% of total demand, while the demand structure for germanium in China is expected to be 30% for optical fibers, 20% for infrared applications, 20% for polymer catalysts, and 15% for satellite photovoltaics [2] - China's defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% year-on-year in 2024 and 2025, which is expected to simultaneously enhance the demand for germanium in infrared applications [2] - Since early 2025, China's germanium exports initially declined and then increased, with November 2025 export volume at 41% of the average level from the first three months of 2023 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply growth of by-product metal germanium is constrained, and with inventory declining, the mismatch in supply and demand growth is likely to drive domestic germanium prices to stabilize and rebound [3] - Germanium is difficult to mine independently due to its chemical properties and is generally found in other minerals, primarily concentrated in sphalerite and lignite [3] - As of November 2025, domestic smelter germanium inventory has decreased by 51% from the peak in May 2025, falling within the 50% percentile of the past five years [3] - As of January 9, domestic germanium prices were reported at 13.15 million yuan per ton, down 30% from the November 2024 peak, while European germanium prices were reported at 492.5 thousand USD per ton, up 234% from August 2023, with overseas prices approximately 2.6 times higher than domestic prices [3]