洪灝：2026年将为投资者带来“改运逆命”的机会

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for 2026, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which could lead to a significant market bubble and opportunities for investors [5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in January, driven by tightening short-term liquidity and rising repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate [5][9][10]. - The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9.1 trillion to just over $6 trillion, impacting the economy, particularly low-income groups, despite rising S&P 500 earnings [10][12]. - The article highlights that the U.S. forward inflation expectations are unlikely to decrease, which could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [14][17]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is currently viewed as a fair valuation at around $4,500 per ounce, serving as an anchor for all valuations in a new credit system [18][22]. - The article suggests that silver has not yet reached its peak, with a potential upward trajectory as indicated by its long-term "cup and handle" pattern [23][26]. - The global liquidity conditions are improving, which historically leads to asset price increases, particularly for precious metals [28][31]. Group 3: Market Cycles and Investment Opportunities - The article posits that 2026 may be at the peak of a long-term market cycle, presenting opportunities for significant asset price increases, including in industrial metals and new asset classes like cryptocurrencies [32][36]. - The current environment is characterized by abundant liquidity, which is favorable for risk investments, and the market sentiment is showing signs of recovery [37][39]. - The article concludes that the trends initiated at the end of last year, including the rise of industrial commodities, gold, silver, and Chinese tech stocks, are expected to continue into this year [45].