高盛展望2026大中华区科技趋势：ASIC成AI服务器增量核心，光模块迈向1.6T，果链领跑智能手机.......

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs report highlights that AI infrastructure, innovation in consumer electronics, and localization of semiconductors will be the core themes driving growth in the technology sector by 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Semiconductor Trends - AI servers are transitioning from a GPU-dominated landscape to a dual-GPU and ASIC development phase, with ASIC's penetration expected to significantly increase by 2026 [4]. - The demand for high-speed optical interconnects is set to grow, with a transition from 400G to 800G and eventually to 1.6T, driven by the need for enhanced bandwidth and reduced latency in AI clusters [5]. - Liquid cooling solutions are anticipated to gain traction in ASIC AI servers, with a notable increase in adoption rates, enhancing thermal efficiency and creating new technical barriers [6]. Group 2: Consumer Electronics and Smartphone Market - The iPhone's continuous innovation cycle, particularly with the introduction of foldable models, is expected to significantly influence consumer demand and reshape upgrade logic [9]. - The smartphone market is experiencing a moderate recovery, with high-end models and AI functionalities driving growth, despite overall shipment volumes not returning to previous high-growth levels [10]. Group 3: PCB and Semiconductor Localization - The high-end PCB and CCL markets are facing supply constraints due to increasing demand from AI servers and high-end consumer electronics, leading to improved pricing power and profitability [11]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is entering an accelerated phase, driven by AI computing needs and increasing acceptance of local chips and materials, transitioning from policy-driven to commercially driven growth [12][13]. Group 4: Emerging Technologies - Long-term growth opportunities are identified in L4 autonomous driving and low Earth orbit satellites, which are expected to drive demand for chips, sensors, and system integration [14][15].