国泰海通｜宏观：开年经济温和回暖

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent "anti-involution" policy signals in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, indicating a gradual cancellation of export tax rebates and efforts to further regulate industry competition, which may pressure short-term profitability but improve the supply-demand landscape in the medium term, benefiting leading companies with technological barriers, cost advantages, and overseas channels [1] Group 2 - Recent high-frequency data shows that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally after the New Year holiday [1] - Investment is expected to stabilize in the first quarter due to the early issuance of special bonds, although the real estate sector remains weak, and physical indicators in the building materials chain are seasonally declining [1] - Foreign trade is showing improved conditions, with both export volume and price on the rise [1] - Overall production is recovering, with increased operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali industries [1] - Consumer prices are weak, while industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with continuous price increases in the non-ferrous chain and lithium carbonate [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have slightly increased, and the US dollar has appreciated due to market risk aversion triggered by geopolitical events, leading to a slight depreciation of the RMB [1]