商品普涨，有色银光：申万期货早间评论-20260113

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals and lithium carbonate, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Government and Economic Policies - The Chinese government has clarified the layout and direction of government investment funds, emphasizing support for major strategies and key areas while avoiding investments in restricted or obsolete industries [1][8]. - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, effective immediately, which may impact global trade dynamics [1][7]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing a rebound due to easing inflation pressures in the U.S., weak employment data, and strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating a favorable liquidity environment [2][20]. - Gold's long-term upward trend is supported by weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases, while silver and platinum are bolstered by supply-demand gaps and industrial demand [2][20]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have risen, with significant trading volumes, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by technology cycles, policy benefits, and economic recovery [3][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][12]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures have surged, with a strong market outlook despite potential short-term price corrections, driven by robust terminal demand and supply concerns [4][25]. - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, while social inventory decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][25]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has seen a significant increase of 11.3%, with expectations of continued demand leading up to the Chinese New Year, although a seasonal decline in rates is anticipated as the holiday approaches [34].