中金：重估美国通胀风险与市场影响

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that statistical errors in measuring U.S. inflation may lead to a compensatory increase in CPI data in late 2025 and early 2026, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global liquidity [2][4][7]. Group 1: Inflation Analysis - The recent drop in U.S. CPI from 3% to 2.7% and core CPI from 3% to 2.6% is attributed to statistical method flaws rather than a genuine change in inflation trends [5][7]. - The U.S. inflation rebound risk is not resolved; the low CPI readings in November are significantly underestimated due to the "government shutdown" affecting data collection [7][8]. - The article identifies three main statistical underestimation effects: 1. The low estimation effect from the rental sample rotation, which could lead to a doubling of rental inflation by April 2026, compensating for previous underestimations [8][10]. 2. The underestimation from alternating monthly sample rotations, which may result in a compensatory increase in December 2025 inflation [10][12]. 3. The lagging statistical timing effect due to data collection during the Thanksgiving season, which could lead to overestimations in January 2026 [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation will be in an upward cycle in the first half of 2026, with CPI potentially rising due to compensatory effects [13][16]. - It anticipates a temporary improvement in U.S. economic growth in early 2026, driven by government spending resuming after the shutdown and seasonal adjustments in economic data [22][24]. - The potential for a "temporary overheating" state in the economy is noted, with inflation and growth possibly rising simultaneously [24][29]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing commodity allocations to hedge against inflation risks and suggests buying on dips for gold, U.S. Treasuries, and Chinese stocks if there are market corrections [2][30][31]. - It emphasizes that while inflation may rise in the short term, the long-term outlook suggests a return to lower inflation rates, which could lead to a faster pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [30][31].