【整车主线周报】12月新能源批发符合预期，看好26年景气度向上

Investment Highlights - The automotive industry is expected to see a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and resilient companies like Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [3][8] - For heavy trucks, wholesale sales in 2025 are projected at 1.14 million units, a 26% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales expected to reach 800,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 3% growth [4][35] - The bus sector is anticipated to benefit from a new vehicle replacement policy in 2026, with expected sales of 40,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year, driven by the need to replace aging buses [4][34] - The motorcycle market is projected to grow, with total industry sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, and large-displacement motorcycles expected to see a 31% increase in sales [5][32] Passenger Vehicle Insights - The short-term outlook for the passenger vehicle sector is positive, with a recovery in demand expected in early 2026, supported by subsidy policies [3][8] - Key players in the domestic market include Jianghuai Automobile and high-end brands like Geely and Great Wall, while export strategies should focus on established companies like BYD and Changan [3][8] Heavy Truck Insights - In 2025, heavy truck wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.14 million units, with a significant increase in terminal sales and exports [4][35] - The market is expected to see a reduction in older trucks, with a projected elimination of 210,000 units by the end of 2025 [4][35] Bus Insights - The bus market is expected to see a slight increase in sales in 2026, with a focus on replacing older buses that have exceeded their replacement cycle [4][34] - The anticipated sales for 2025 are 38,000 units, with a 25% increase year-on-year, while 2026 is expected to see 40,000 units sold [4][34] Motorcycle Insights - The motorcycle industry is projected to grow significantly, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, driven by both domestic and export markets [5][32] - Large-displacement motorcycles are expected to see a 31% increase in sales, with domestic sales projected at 430,000 units [5][32]