2025量化超额表现亮眼，未来机遇在哪？多位大咖共话策略、技术与人才布局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 20th Private Equity Fund Development Forum, focusing on the theme of "Following the Light, Stars Across the Galaxy," which aims to explore new paths for high-quality development in China's private equity fund industry through discussions on AI empowerment, investment opportunities in equity markets, and the value of CTA strategy allocation [2]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Challenges - In 2025, the quantitative industry showed strong performance due to favorable market conditions, including a positive beta market, active small-cap stocks, and high trading volumes, which provided ample opportunities for capturing mispricing [4]. - Potential challenges for the industry include a weakening beta market, which could pressure strategy stability and investor experience, a decline in market liquidity affecting different frequency alpha strategies, and the long-term decay of alpha requiring continuous updates to factors and models to maintain competitive strategies [5]. Group 2: Technological Integration and Talent - AI has become a crucial tool in quantitative research and investment, enhancing efficiency across various stages such as factor testing, code writing, and portfolio optimization. Institutions are encouraged to embrace emerging technologies like AI to diversify alpha sources and maintain competitive strategies [6]. - The current period is seen as a "golden age" for AI quantitative talent, but if market rules align more closely with international standards, the difficulty of extracting excess returns may increase, leading to a shift in the industry's reliance on AI and talent needs [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy Adaptation - The high trading volume and cross-sectional volatility in 2025, particularly in the first half, were favorable for generating excess returns through quantitative strategies. However, as the overall scale of quantitative strategies grows, the environment for excess returns may tighten, necessitating a balanced approach to research and factor allocation [10][7]. - The market is currently driven by themes and liquidity, with high participation from retail investors, which creates opportunities for quantitative strategies. However, concentrated market themes or high capital alignment may pose challenges for these strategies [13]. Group 4: Product Development and Future Opportunities - The natural advantages of quantitative strategies in risk-return characteristics allow for precise measurement and design in product development. Future opportunities lie in creating strategies that not only pursue high excess returns but also exhibit high Sharpe ratios and low drawdown characteristics, catering to larger, low-risk preference funds [13]. - For smaller management firms, focusing on talent development rather than mere selection is crucial. Creating a collaborative research culture and empowering core talent can lead to significant breakthroughs and differentiated development in specific strategies or fields [14].