野村行业观察 | 新局开启，展望2026年中国汽车行业

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry in 2026 will shift from price competition to focusing on product quality, design, and performance, driven by tightening government policies and regulations [1][3]. Industry Trends - The automotive market is expected to experience adjustments in 2026, as it is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," laying the groundwork for future developments [3]. - The supply-demand relationship in the Chinese automotive market remains unbalanced, leading to intense domestic competition [3]. - There is a trend towards tightening policies while encouraging exports, which may slightly impact domestic demand [3][5]. Challenges - The tightening policy environment introduces uncertainty in domestic market demand, creating pressure on automotive companies [5]. - Companies face challenges in enhancing product appeal without raising prices due to reduced subsidies and anti-price-cutting measures [5]. - Rising costs of materials, including memory and battery prices, add additional burdens on manufacturers [5]. - Expanding into overseas markets presents risks and challenges for automotive companies [5]. Development Strategies - Effective management of the supply chain ecosystem and cost control are essential for automotive companies to thrive [6]. - Companies need to focus on product innovation and market share expansion to gain consumer recognition [6]. - Consumer engagement and marketing efforts are crucial for success [6]. Market Structure - The future Chinese automotive market is expected to remain diverse, with a few leading companies dominating the overall market [7]. - Successful overseas expansion could alter the ecosystem of Chinese automotive companies, with some focusing more on international channels while others strengthen their domestic presence [7]. Opportunities in Hybrid Vehicles - There are significant opportunities for hybrid and plug-in vehicles in overseas markets, particularly in regions like the EU, where export requirements are stringent [8]. - If Chinese companies can navigate the regulatory landscape, they may capture a larger market share, especially as European goals for new energy vehicles evolve [8]. Differentiation Strategies - In a market with severe product homogeneity, companies should focus on achieving better cost-performance ratios, particularly in the economy segment [9]. - For high-end and luxury brands, establishing a clear target demographic and integrating advanced technology is essential for product promotion [9]. Joint Venture Reforms - Joint venture companies are making significant reforms to better cater to the Chinese market, utilizing local supply chains to develop models favored by Chinese consumers [10]. - While improvements are possible, the focus remains on replacing declining market shares of traditional fuel vehicles with more competitive offerings from domestic brands [10]. Autonomous Driving Perspective - China has a robust support system for the autonomous driving industry, encompassing components, software, and OEM manufacturers [11]. - The recent opening of L3 pilot programs aims to define L3 standards, which will require further legal and regulatory development to foster growth in the smart driving sector [11].