碳酸锂突破17万元大关，这波上涨的尽头在哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by the adjustment of export tax rebate policies, leading to expectations of increased exports and a tight supply chain, despite potential volatility risks in the market [4][11][12]. Supply Side - As of January 12, total lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, a 0.5% week-on-week rise. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached 3,959 tons, while lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lake sources were 2,956 tons and 3,185 tons, respectively, showing increases of 0.7% and 1.3% [5]. Demand Side - There is significant divergence in market expectations for January production. A neutral outlook suggests a demand decrease of around 5%, while ongoing negotiations in the industry could lead to a potential 10% drop. However, long-term demand from energy storage and heavy-duty vehicles remains strong, with expectations of increased orders [7][10]. Inventory Status - As of January 12, weekly inventory stood at 109,942 tons, with smelter inventory at 18,382 tons and downstream inventory at 36,540 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2,458 tons. The total warehouse receipts as of January 9 reached 25,360 contracts, an increase of 5,079 contracts week-on-week [7][9]. Cost Side - The average cost of lithium carbonate is reported at 152,955.2 yuan/ton, with a production loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton. The production costs for spodumene and lepidolite are 153,000 yuan/ton and 142,000 yuan/ton, respectively, indicating limited profit margins [9]. Market Perspectives - The adjustment of export tax rebates has led to a surge in export demand, with expectations of concentrated "export rush" behavior in the short term. The rising raw material prices are squeezing profit margins for battery manufacturers, which may lead to increased purchasing activity if prices correct [11][12][14]. - The market sentiment is optimistic due to multiple factors including supply disruptions, improving demand, and policy catalysts. However, caution is advised as the rapid price increases may lead to profit-taking and subsequent volatility [12][13].