铜价分歧加剧！瑞银押注“供给崩塌”，高盛警惕“过热回调”，拐点到了吗？

Core Viewpoint - UBS warns of a severe copper shortage in 2026/27 due to declining efficiency in mining capital investments, requiring $175 billion to fill a 7 million ton gap, while Goldman Sachs sees a short-term surplus driven by "tariff panic" [1][2][7]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Supply Challenges - UBS highlights that despite rising copper prices, mining project approvals (FID) remain at low levels from 2023 to 2025, indicating a structural supply shortage in the copper market [2][3]. - The report reveals that while nominal global copper industry capital expenditure remains stable at around $40 billion, real capital expenditure in 2025 is only about 30% of the peak level in 2013, showing a declining trend over the past three years [4]. - UBS notes a significant increase in capital intensity, with potential projects from 2025 to 2030 requiring an average capital intensity of $25,000 per ton, a 50% increase compared to projects approved from 2021 to 2025 [6]. Group 2: Future Supply and Investment Needs - UBS's long-term model indicates that global mining supply will peak between 2028 and 2030 and then decline, with a supply-demand gap expected to reach 7 million tons by 2035 [7][8]. - To address this gap, the industry needs to invest over $175 billion in new projects immediately, but project approvals are still near cyclical lows, making it difficult to meet demand growth [8][10]. - New project capital expenditure needs to increase to $5 billion by 2026 and reach $20 billion annually by 2030, maintaining this level until 2035 [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - UBS believes that current spot prices are at or above levels that can incentivize new project investments, estimating that a long-term copper price of $5.0 per pound (approximately $11,000 per ton) is necessary to stimulate most new projects [11]. - Despite prices reaching these levels, major companies like BHP and Rio Tinto are prioritizing mergers and acquisitions over high-risk new mine developments, indicating a slow supply response [11]. - The market is experiencing a split, with UBS focusing on long-term supply constraints and rising costs, while Goldman Sachs and Citigroup warn of a fragile balance driven by tariff fears and potential oversupply in the short term [18].