格隆汇2026“下注中国”十大核心资产之阿里巴巴

Core Insights - Alibaba has been selected as a core asset in the digital economy for 2026, reflecting its significant role in China's digital landscape and its potential in the AI infrastructure wave [2] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on two main pillars: "AI + Cloud" technology platform and "Shopping + Lifestyle Services" consumer platform [2][3] - Since 2021, Alibaba has made multiple organizational and executive adjustments, stabilizing its governance structure and strategic focus [4] Organizational and Governance Changes - The recent organizational restructuring aims to shift from a "complex and diverse" model to a "focused and efficient" execution model, centering around consumption and AI cloud [7] - Leadership roles have been clarified, with key figures like Daniel Zhang and Wu Yongming taking on specific responsibilities to enhance strategic execution [7][8] - The number of partners in the company has decreased from 26 to 17, marking a significant management transition and a new phase focused on execution efficiency [8][9] E-commerce Business Stability - E-commerce remains Alibaba's core pillar, contributing approximately 58.4% of total revenue as of FY26Q1, with the Chinese e-commerce group accounting for 56.6% [13] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) has shown an upward trend since FY25Q3, indicating a recovery in the core cash flow engine [17] - The improvement in CMR is attributed to product and structural optimizations rather than simple price increases, with a focus on service value [18][19] Instant Retail Strategy - Alibaba is investing in instant retail through platforms like Taobao Flash and Ele.me, which has led to significant order growth despite short-term losses [24][25] - The strategic importance of instant retail is highlighted by its potential to drive e-commerce synergy and defend market share, with projections indicating a market size of 3 trillion yuan by 2030 [26] AI + Cloud as a Growth Engine - The "AI + Cloud" segment is crucial for Alibaba's long-term valuation, with the global public cloud market expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025 [28] - Alibaba Cloud holds about one-third of the Chinese public cloud market, with AI becoming a key growth driver, evidenced by triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue over eight consecutive quarters [28][29] - The company is entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle, with plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years [28] Redefining Core Asset Value - Alibaba is evolving from a pure e-commerce company to a hybrid enterprise with stable cash flow and high-growth technology businesses [31] - The company's overall valuation is projected to reach approximately 3.55 trillion yuan by 2026, with potential stock price targets around 200 HKD [34] - The strategic focus and organizational restructuring position Alibaba as a key player in defining the digital infrastructure of the AI era in China [39]