港股公司报告 | 公司深度研究 阿里巴巴-W（09988） 证券研究报告 三问：空间几何？今年产生哪些重要变化？远期有哪些看点？ 我国电商渗透率仍有空间，阿里巴巴围绕用户构筑核心优势。长期而言，我国线上购物渗透 率仍有上升空间，中短期内，受消费下行影响，电商 GMV 及社零整体增速放缓，电商平台 或进入存量竞争为主的时代。虽然线上零售份额存在下滑，但阿里巴巴通过用户为先战略 GMV 实现企稳回升，围绕 88VIP 持续发展用户生态。88VIP 已为淘天积累超 4200 万高活跃、 高购买力与高黏性用户，贡献超 25%淘天 GMV。2024 年，淘天充分升级购物权益，引入天 天 2 元红包、退货运费包、售后保障包，并持续精细化运营，设计生活卡、购物卡及全能卡， 充分发挥其权益覆盖吃穿住行，联名合作范围广的生态优势。 组织结构精简，回购持续提升股东回报。2023 年底，吴泳铭确立"用户为先、AI 驱动"两大 战略重心，同时负责淘天+阿里云两大核心业务。其中，淘天在组织结构上率先变革，将天 猫淘宝作为基础，并令吴嘉统管用户增长的用户平台事业部，以及商业变现的阿里妈妈事业 部，同时抓住流量买、卖两端。战略目标上，淘天 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.4%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.29%. Most tech stocks increased, with Alibaba (09988) up approximately 1.5%, while SMIC (00981) fell over 2% after its earnings report [1] - According to a report from Founder Securities, the current rally in the Hong Kong stock market remains intact, with overall valuations near historical averages. The attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to continue to rise, supported by the recovery of the Chinese economy, improving corporate earnings, and a favorable liquidity environment [2] - CICC's latest report indicates that the long-term pricing of Hong Kong stocks depends on earnings prospects. If earnings materialize, related stocks may experience a situation where prices rise while valuations decrease. In the short term, some stocks that have risen significantly may face volatility [2] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Securities, the three main lines of high allocation value in the Hong Kong market in the medium to long term are: first, the technology sector with promising earnings; second, the consumer sector with strong policy support; and third, high-dividend sectors with stable investment returns [2] - Researcher Bi Mengnian from Grayscale Wealth pointed out that while overseas interest rates are gradually declining, the pressure on the Hong Kong stock market will ease. In the long term, a moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policies will continue to support the economic fundamentals, indicating significant investment value in the Hong Kong market [3] - Singapore Bank's China equity strategist, Huo Huimin, noted that the government work report emphasizes promoting consumption and supporting technological innovation, which is favorable for the stock market. The target price for the Hang Seng Index is set at 25,900 points [3] Group 3 - Industrial Securities reported that recent indicators such as turnover rate and short-selling volume in the Hang Seng Index suggest that market sentiment is at a short-term peak. The high internationalization of the Hong Kong market makes it susceptible to influences from Western markets and geopolitical factors, leading to expected short-term fluctuations [4] - The current bull market in China has found its main driving force in AI technology breakthroughs and advancements in robotics. The recent adjustments due to overseas risks may benefit the mid-term sustainability of the bull market [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 1,004,569 million, 1,123,039 million, and 1,254,470 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.74%, 11.79%, and 11.70% [7] - The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.03%. The forecast for FY2025 is 132,264 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 65.87% [7] - The report indicates a gross margin of 36.72% for FY2023, projected to increase to 39.05% by FY2025 [7] AI Application and Market Position - Alibaba's new AI flagship application, "New Quark," launched on March 13, integrates various AI functionalities and is expected to enhance user engagement. The application has achieved a daily active user count of 34.3 million, leading the AI application market [5][9] - The report highlights Alibaba's strong position in the AI and cloud computing sectors, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s proprietary AI models are expected to outperform competitors [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9]. Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2024 and FY2025 are 941,168 million yuan (8.34% growth) and 1,004,569 million yuan (6.74% growth) respectively. The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a projected increase to 79,741 million yuan in FY2024 and 132,264 million yuan in FY2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 65.87% [7][15]. AI Application Development - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application, New Quark, which integrates multiple AI functionalities and aims to transition from a cloud storage and search engine to an AI agent. The application is expected to leverage the high traffic from its existing services and the company's leading AI foundational capabilities [5][9]. - The report highlights that New Quark has achieved a daily active user (DAU) count of 34.3 million, making it the top AI application, with over 200 million total users, predominantly from the post-00s demographic [5][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in the current AI wave, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s strong AI research capabilities, exemplified by its proprietary Qwen deep reasoning model, are expected to enhance its competitive edge [5][9]. - The report notes that the recent launch of the general AI agent product Manus marks a significant step in the evolution of C-end AI applications, with Alibaba's New Quark poised to capitalize on this trend [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's strong commitment to technology investment and the potential commercialization opportunities arising from the new AI cycle. The integration of intelligent advertising tools is already contributing to the advertising business, and the commercialization process of Taotian is accelerating. The focus on improving the merchant business environment is expected to optimize the Taobao ecosystem [2][5]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba's revenue reached 280.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 48.9 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 239% [5]. Business Segments - Taotian Group: The CMR (Customer Management Revenue) grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and the increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. The EBITA for Taotian Group increased by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [5]. - AIDC: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [5]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA growing by 33%. The capital expenditure for FY2025 Q1-Q3 saw a significant increase, reflecting a 259% year-on-year growth [5]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million. This growth is attributed to the optimization of the membership benefits system, which is expected to drive new buyers and orders [5]. Future Profit Projections - The report projects the net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 139.6 billion yuan, 157.6 billion yuan, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The report highlights optimism regarding Alibaba's commercial opportunities arising from its strong commitment to technology investment and the integration of AI within its ecosystem. The acceleration of commercialization in its core business, particularly through intelligent advertising tools, is expected to enhance growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 239% to 48.9 billion yuan [4][8]. Business Segments - **Taotian Group**: The group experienced a 9% year-on-year growth in CMR, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. EBITA grew by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [8]. - **AIDC**: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [8]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA rising by 33%, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services and significant increases in AI-related product usage [8]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million, suggesting that the optimization of membership benefits is driving new buyer and order growth [8]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures for FY2025 Q1-Q3 were reported at 121 billion, 175 billion, and 318 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 259% in the latest quarter [8]. Profit Forecast - The report projects net profits attributable to shareholders for FY2025-2027 to be 139.6 billion, 157.6 billion, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][6] Core Insights - Alibaba's FY3Q25 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 280.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and adjusted net profit of 51.07 billion yuan, up 6.5% [4][6] - The company is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with significant capital expenditure planned to enhance cloud computing and AI infrastructure [4][9] - The report highlights improvements in operational efficiency and a reduction in losses across various business segments, particularly in local services and international commerce [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: FY3Q25 revenue was 2801.5 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus of 2774 billion yuan; adjusted net profit was 510.7 billion yuan, significantly above the expected 455 billion yuan [4][6] - **Taobao Group**: Revenue reached 1360.9 billion yuan, a 5.4% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA of 610.8 billion yuan, up 1.9% [4][6] - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue was 317.4 billion yuan, a 13.1% increase, with adjusted EBITA of 31.4 billion yuan, up 32.7% [4][6] - **International Digital Commerce**: Revenue grew by 32.4% to 377.6 billion yuan, driven by growth in AliExpress and Trendyol [4][6] - **Capital Expenditure**: FY3Q25 capital expenditure was 317.8 billion yuan, a 258.8% increase year-on-year, reflecting a strong commitment to AI and cloud infrastructure [4][6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for FY2025-2027 are 10046 billion yuan, 11230 billion yuan, and 12545 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion yuan, 1656 billion yuan, and 1863 billion yuan [6][22] - The estimated market capitalization based on segment valuation is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 175.10 HKD per share [6][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [2][6][22] Core Insights - Alibaba's FY3Q25 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 2801.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and adjusted net profit of 510.7 billion yuan, up 6.5% [4][6] - The company is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with significant capital expenditure planned to enhance cloud computing and AI infrastructure [4][9][22] Financial Performance - Alibaba's revenue for FY3Q25 was 2801.5 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of 2774 billion yuan [4] - Adjusted net profit for FY3Q25 was 510.7 billion yuan, significantly above the expected 455 billion yuan [4] - The company's capital expenditure for FY3Q25 reached 317.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 258.8% [4][9] Business Segments - Taobao Group generated revenue of 1360.9 billion yuan in FY3Q25, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [4] - Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue of 317.4 billion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related services [4] - International Digital Commerce achieved revenue of 377.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue for FY2025-2027 to be 10046 billion yuan, 11230 billion yuan, and 12545 billion yuan respectively [6][22] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 1577 billion yuan, 1656 billion yuan, and 1863 billion yuan for FY2025-2027 [6][22] - The company plans to invest over 3800 billion yuan in AI and cloud computing infrastructure over the next three years [9][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) with a target price of 176.66 HKD, compared to the current price of 130.40 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of Alibaba Cloud in the context of a new phase of AI growth in China, highlighting its leading position in the public cloud market and its strategic advantages [5][10]. - The report discusses the shift in enterprise demand towards integrated IaaS+PaaS solutions driven by the AI wave, suggesting that this trend will enhance the overall cloud market growth [9][20]. Summary by Sections Domestic Cloud Market Landscape - The public cloud market in China is experiencing a second growth cycle driven by IaaS+PaaS integration, with public cloud revenue accounting for 74% of the total cloud market in 2023, growing by 40% year-on-year [5][19]. - IaaS remains the largest segment, while PaaS is the fastest-growing, indicating a shift in enterprise preferences towards more comprehensive cloud solutions [19][20]. Alibaba Cloud's Competitive Position - Alibaba Cloud is the leading public cloud service provider in China, with significant market shares in both IaaS and PaaS, and ranks second globally in terms of product and strategic capabilities [10][38]. - The company has built a deep competitive moat through its self-developed technology stack and long-term strategic investments, making it a key player in the "AI + Cloud" development landscape [10][49]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts Alibaba's total revenue to reach 941.17 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%, and adjusted net profit expected to grow by 11.4% to 157.48 billion CNY [6]. - The adjusted EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud is showing a quarterly improvement, indicating a positive trend in profitability as AI-related revenues accelerate [5][11]. Investment Logic - The report suggests that the core of Alibaba's valuation recovery is centered around the re-evaluation of its cloud business, with future sustainability dependent on the performance of its core e-commerce business and the growth of AI-related cloud services [11][12]. - The SOTP valuation method indicates a target market value of 30,558 billion CNY for FY26, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14/12 times for FY26-27 adjusted net profit [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY25Q3 revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.0%. Adjusted EBITA was 54.9 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 51.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.7% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 119 million shares for a total of 1.3 billion USD, with an authorized remaining amount of 20.7 billion USD as of December 31, 2024 [1]. - Capital expenditures (Capex) for FY25Q3 were 31.8 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 106%. The company anticipates that Capex over the next three years will exceed the total of the past decade, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI infrastructure [1]. Business Segment Summaries Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 136.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3.3%. Adjusted EBITA was 61.1 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 4.4% [2]. - Customer management revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and increased pricing. The number of 88VIP members grew to 49 million, continuing to drive subscription growth through enhanced services [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 31.7 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA of 3.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.9%. The overall revenue grew over 11% year-on-year, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3]. AIDC (AliExpress) - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 37.8 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 5 billion yuan due to increased investments during the overseas shopping season [4]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture with South Korea's Shinsegae to operate AliExpress Korea and Gmarket [4]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated revenue of 28.2 billion yuan with an adjusted EBITA of 240 million yuan. Local life services revenue was 17 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 600 million yuan, primarily driven by growth in orders from Gaode and Ele.me [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY 2025-2027 are 992.9 billion yuan, 1,081.5 billion yuan, and 1,180.2 billion yuan respectively. Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 147.1 billion yuan, 184.8 billion yuan, and 200.8 billion yuan [5].