证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） FY2025Q4 季报点评：核心主业超预期，AI 持续投入 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,068,578 | 1,158,745 | 1,269,024 | | 同比（%） | 8.34 | 5.86 | 7.25 | 8.44 | 9.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 80,009 | 130,109 | 152,266 | 169,883 | 191,673 | | 同比（%） | 9.93 | 62.62 | 17.03 | 11.57 | 12.83 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 157,479 | 158,122 | 171,156 | 188,575 | 210,307 | | 同比（%） | 11.39 | 0.41 ...

FY2025Q4 季报点评：核心主业超预期，AI 持续投入 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,068,578 | 1,158,745 | 1,269,024 | | 同比（%） | 8.34 | 5.86 | 7.25 | 8.44 | 9.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 80,009 | 130,109 | 152,266 | 169,883 | 191,673 | | 同比（%） | 9.93 | 62.62 | 17.03 | 11.57 | 12.83 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 157,479 | 158,122 | 171,156 | 188,575 | 210,307 | | 同比（%） | 11.39 | 0.41 ...

电商主业稳中向好，云业务势能持续释放 ——阿里巴巴 FY25Q4 点评 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -1.93 | 1.12 | -14.61 | 52.82 | | 相对表现% | -1.71 | -4.8 | -12.48 | 27.71 | | 恒生指数% | -0.22 | 5.92 | -2.13 | 25.11 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 | | 金沐阳 | jinmuyang@orientsec.com.cn | 执业证书编号：S08605250300 ...

电商主业稳中向好，云业务势能持续释放 ——阿里巴巴 FY25Q4 点评 核心观点 阿里巴巴-W 09988.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年05月26日） | 116.9 港元 | | 目标价格 | 176.86 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 145.9/69.8 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 1,908,799/1,908,799 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 2,231,386 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 27 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -1.93 | 1.12 | -14.61 | 52.82 | | 相对表现% | -1.71 | -4.8 | -12.48 | 27.71 | | 恒生指数% | -0.22 | 5.92 | -2.13 | 25.11 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888 ...

阿里巴巴(09988.HK)：淘宝闪购在推出后的一个月内日订单量已超过4000万单。 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock's stake in Alibaba (09988.HK) increased from 4.90% to 5.04% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) with a target price of HK$ 150 [1][7]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY25 Q4 revenue reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below market expectations of RMB 237.91 billion. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 12.382 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 279% [8]. - The report highlights strong growth in the Taobao Group's revenue, which increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 71.077 billion in FY25 Q4, driven by an increase in commission rates and a growing 88VIP membership base [11]. - The cloud intelligence business faced challenges, with revenue of RMB 30.127 billion in FY25 Q4, a year-on-year increase of 18%, but slightly below market expectations due to prior R&D expenses and depreciation affecting profit margins [11]. - The report anticipates continued high investment in AI and cloud computing infrastructure, projecting over RMB 380 billion in investments over the next three years, which is expected to exceed the total of the past decade [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 Q4 revenue: RMB 236.45 billion, YoY +7% [8] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders: RMB 12.382 billion, YoY +279% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit: RMB 29.85 billion, YoY +22% [8] Revenue Breakdown - Taobao Group FY25 Q4 revenue: RMB 71.077 billion, YoY +12% [11] - International Digital Commerce Group FY25 Q4 revenue: RMB 27.603 billion, YoY +24% [11] - Cloud Intelligence Group FY25 Q4 revenue: RMB 30.127 billion, YoY +18% [11] Profit Forecast - Projected net profit for FY2026-2028: RMB 141.8 billion, RMB 153.0 billion, RMB 164.7 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of 9.0%, 7.9%, and 7.7% [11]. - Projected EPS for FY2026-2028: RMB 7.46, RMB 8.05, RMB 8.67 [11]. Valuation Metrics - H-share P/E ratios for FY2024 to FY2028 are projected to be 31.50, 15.90, 14.69, 13.61, and 12.64 respectively [10]. - Dividend per share (DPS) is projected to be RMB 1.61, RMB 0.94, RMB 2.10, RMB 2.20, and RMB 2.30 for FY2024 to FY2028 [10]. Capital Expenditure - FY25 Q4 capital expenditure was RMB 24.512 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 22%, indicating lower-than-expected demand in the AI sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [7][8]. Core Insights - Alibaba's FY25 Q4 revenue reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below market expectations of RMB 237.91 billion. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 12.382 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 279% [8]. - The report highlights strong growth in the Taobao Group's revenue, which increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 71.077 billion in FY25 Q4, driven by an increase in commission rates and a growing 88VIP membership base [11]. - The cloud intelligence business faced pressure, with revenue of RMB 30.127 billion in FY25 Q4, a year-on-year increase of 18%, but slightly below market expectations due to prior R&D expenses and depreciation [11]. - The report anticipates continued high investment in AI and cloud computing, with expected capital expenditures exceeding RMB 380 billion over the next three years [11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba operates in the commerce and retail industry, with a market capitalization of HK$ 175.28 billion and a share price of HK$ 119.10 as of May 25, 2022 [2]. Financial Performance - FY25 Q4 net profit was RMB 119.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1203%, attributed to changes in equity investments and operational profit growth [8]. - The report projects net profits for FY2026-2028 to be RMB 141.8 billion, RMB 153 billion, and RMB 164.7 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.0%, 7.9%, and 7.7% [11]. Market Position - The report notes that the Taobao Group and international business segments maintain high growth rates, while the local life group continues to face challenges due to competition in the food delivery sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - The report expresses confidence in the profitability growth of Alibaba's Taotian Group and the long-term trends and competitive landscape of its cloud business [1][2] - Taotian Group's FY25Q4 revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, with customer management revenue growing by 12% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3.89% [1] - Alibaba Cloud's FY25Q4 revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, although adjusted EBITA margin declined by 1.9 percentage points to 8%, falling short of Bloomberg consensus of 14.25% [2] Summary by Sections Taotian Group Business - Taotian Group's FY25Q4 adjusted EBITA increased by 8% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 6.2% [1] - The growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is expected to potentially exceed expectations, driven by three catalysts: collaboration with instant retail, external link access from Xiaohongshu, and AI-enhanced advertising effectiveness [1] Cloud Business - Short-term supply pressures are anticipated to cause performance fluctuations, but the long-term industry trends and competitive landscape remain promising [2] - The strategic focus on cloud and AI is prioritized, with expectations that the upward drivers will eventually outweigh the downward pressures from R&D investments and depreciation [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are 1,087.93 billion, 1,165.38 billion, and 1,249.82 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.1%, and 7.2% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are forecasted at 191.79 billion, 200.43 billion, and 217.53 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.4%, 4.5%, and 8.5% respectively [3] - The report assigns an 11x PE to FY2026 adjusted net profit and a 5x PS to FY2026 cloud revenue, resulting in a target price of HK$160.1 per share [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba reported strong financial results for FY25Q4, with revenues and adjusted EBITDA exceeding market expectations, particularly in its Taobao Tmall Group and cloud business segments [1][4]. Financial Performance - FY25Q4 revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 30 billion yuan [1]. - Capital expenditures for FY25Q4 were 24.6 billion yuan, down from 31.8 billion yuan in the previous quarter [1]. Business Segment Analysis Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 101.4 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3.6%, with retail revenue of 95.6 billion yuan [1][2]. - Customer management revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, driven by an increase in take rate due to software service fees and improved penetration of "full-site push" [2]. - The number of 88VIP members exceeded 50 million, continuing to grow at a double-digit year-on-year rate [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - FY25Q4 revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, but adjusted EBITDA was 2.4 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 14.3% [1][2]. - Revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in public cloud revenue, with AI-related product adoption increasing significantly [2]. AIDC - FY25Q4 revenue was 33.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -3.6 billion yuan, but revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, driven by strong cross-border business performance [3]. - AIDC focused on improving operational and investment efficiency, with losses narrowing year-on-year [3]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated revenue of 21.6 billion yuan with adjusted EBITDA of -610 million yuan [3]. - Local life services revenue was 16.1 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -2.3 billion yuan [3]. - DME revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 36 million yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, the company repurchased 51 million shares for 600 million USD, and for FY25, it repurchased 1.197 billion shares for 11.9 billion USD, resulting in a net reduction of 995 million shares [4]. - The board approved a total dividend of 0.25 USD per share, including a regular cash dividend and a special cash dividend, totaling approximately 4.6 billion USD [4]. Investment Outlook - The cloud business revenue met expectations, with AI-related product revenue maintaining rapid growth [4]. - Taobao Tmall Group's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by customer management revenue and improved take rates [4]. - AIDC's profitability improved, with losses narrowing and unit economics of AliExpress's Choice business showing improvement [5].