证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 互联网电商 淘天主业稳健，云业务未来可期 ——阿里巴巴 FY25Q4 业绩点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 继续看好公司淘天集团业务利润增长的确定性和云业务长期产业趋势与竞争格 局。 ❑ 继续看好淘天集团业务利润增长的确定性。 财务摘要 淘天集团业务 FY25Q4 收入利润均超市场预期：其中客户管理收入同比增长 12%，超出彭博一致预期 3.89%；淘天集团 FY25Q4 经调整 EBITA 同比增长 8%，超出彭博一致预期 6.2%。 公司在电商业务战略上锚定份额，GMV 增长匹配社零增速，CMR 增速更多靠货 币化率增长驱动。我们预计电商业务 GMV 增长有可能超预期，催化剂来自 3 个 方面：1）跟即时零售的协同见效：公司把淘宝闪购放在淘天 app，用即时零售 高频带低频传统电商，获取新用户和新订单增长，增强用户粘性；2）小红书向 淘天开放外链，淘天平台沉淀更多成交；3）AI+电商促进更好的广告点击和订单 转化。 ❑ 云业务短期供给有压力，带来业绩波动，但看好长期产业趋势和竞争格局。 阿里云业务集团 FY25Q4 收入同比增长 18%，经调整 EBITA 利润率环比下滑 1.9pc ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba reported strong financial results for FY25Q4, with revenues and adjusted EBITDA exceeding market expectations, particularly in its Taobao Tmall Group and cloud business segments [1][4]. Financial Performance - FY25Q4 revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 30 billion yuan [1]. - Capital expenditures for FY25Q4 were 24.6 billion yuan, down from 31.8 billion yuan in the previous quarter [1]. Business Segment Analysis Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q4 was 101.4 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3.6%, with retail revenue of 95.6 billion yuan [1][2]. - Customer management revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, driven by an increase in take rate due to software service fees and improved penetration of "full-site push" [2]. - The number of 88VIP members exceeded 50 million, continuing to grow at a double-digit year-on-year rate [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - FY25Q4 revenue was 30.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, but adjusted EBITDA was 2.4 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 14.3% [1][2]. - Revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in public cloud revenue, with AI-related product adoption increasing significantly [2]. AIDC - FY25Q4 revenue was 33.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -3.6 billion yuan, but revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, driven by strong cross-border business performance [3]. - AIDC focused on improving operational and investment efficiency, with losses narrowing year-on-year [3]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated revenue of 21.6 billion yuan with adjusted EBITDA of -610 million yuan [3]. - Local life services revenue was 16.1 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of -2.3 billion yuan [3]. - DME revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 36 million yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, the company repurchased 51 million shares for 600 million USD, and for FY25, it repurchased 1.197 billion shares for 11.9 billion USD, resulting in a net reduction of 995 million shares [4]. - The board approved a total dividend of 0.25 USD per share, including a regular cash dividend and a special cash dividend, totaling approximately 4.6 billion USD [4]. Investment Outlook - The cloud business revenue met expectations, with AI-related product revenue maintaining rapid growth [4]. - Taobao Tmall Group's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by customer management revenue and improved take rates [4]. - AIDC's profitability improved, with losses narrowing and unit economics of AliExpress's Choice business showing improvement [5].

.证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 21 日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 电商主业维持稳健，AI 带动云业务收入加速增长 | 财务指标 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,095,789 | 1,188,678 | 1,275,729 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 8.34 | 5.86 | 9.98 | 8.48 | 7.32 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 79,741 | 129,470 | 148,262 | 169,012 | 189,412 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 9.97 | 62.36 | 13.95 | 14.00 | 12.07 | | ROE（%） | 8.11 | 12.74 | 13.01 | 13.27 | 13.30 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 4.19 | 6.82 | 7.77 | 8.86 | 9.93 | | ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 阿里巴巴-W（09988） 证券研究报告 云业务收入加速增长，全站推驱动 CMR 增长 公司披露 FY25Q4 季度业绩。FY25Q4 阿里实现收入 2365 亿元，经调整 EBITDA为 418 亿元。 调整后净利润为 300 亿元。FY25Q4 资本支出为 246 亿元，较上季度 318 亿元有所回落。 分业务：淘宝天猫集团收入 1014 亿元，超彭博一致预期 3.6%，其中零售收入 956 亿元，包 括客户管理收入 711 亿元，直销收入 245 亿元；经调整 EBITA 达 417 亿元，超彭博一致预期 6.2%。云智能集团收入 301 亿元，超彭博一致预期 0.8%，经调整 EBITA 24 亿元，低于彭博一 致预期 14.3%。 淘宝天猫集团：FY25Q4 收入 1014 亿元，经调整 EBITA为 417 亿元。1）客户管理收入同比增 长 12%，主要得益于 take rate 的同比提升。Take rate 的提升受益于软件服务费的影响以及"全 站推"渗透率的不断提高。2）公司持续投入于用户增长及其他策略举措，例如推出高性价比 产品、优化客户服务、提升会员计划权益以 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In FY25Q4, Alibaba's revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%); the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%); the Local Life Group's revenue was 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), slightly below expectations by 1.7%, with adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan (up 28%); the Cainiao Group's revenue was 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), below expectations by 14%, with adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan (up 55%); the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), exceeding expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%); the Digital Entertainment Group's revenue was 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), with adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5][6] - The CMR performance of Taobao was impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 12% to 71.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, and the take rate improved year-over-year [6] - The cloud business accelerated growth, with revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations; the capital expenditure for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, with a total of 86 billion yuan for FY2025, significantly higher than 32.1 billion yuan in FY2024 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6%, respectively; Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 7.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in FY25Q4 showed a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, both exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%). The international digital commerce group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%) [5] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In FY25Q4, the company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 29.8 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [4][5] Segment Performance - Taobao Group: Revenue of 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%) [5] - International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue of 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan [5] - Local Life Group: Revenue of 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan [5] - Cainiao Group: Revenue of 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan [6] - Entertainment Group: Revenue of 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5] Cloud Business Growth - The cloud business showed accelerated growth with a revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), surpassing Bloomberg's expectations. The AI business has seen continuous triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6% respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan for the same period [6][10]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月18日 风险提示：政策监管带来经营业务调整；电商行业竞争格局恶化的风险等。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 941,168 | 996,347 | 1,051,955 | 1,124,573 | 1,208,286 | | (+/-%) | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 157,479 | 158,122 | 166,907 | 182,072 | 201,259 | | (+/-%) | 21% | 0% | 6% | 9% | 11% | | 每股收益（元）-经调整 | 8.29 | 8.32 | 8.78 | 9.58 | 10.59 | | EBIT Margin | 18.4% | 18.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | | 净资产收益率（ROE） | 8.0% | 13.0% | ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 电商和云增长提速，AI 投入坚定不改 阿里巴巴发布 2025 年 3 月季度业绩。阿里巴巴 FY2025Q4 财季（截至 2025 年 3 月自然季度）录得总收入 2364.54 亿元，同比增长 7%。本季 non-GAAP 归母净利润约 300 亿元，同比增长 18%。 按业务条线看：1）淘天集团录得 1014 亿元收入，同比增长 9%；经调整 EBITA 约 417 亿元，同比增长 8%。2）国际商业录得 336 亿元收入，同 比增长 22%；经调整 EBITA 约-36 亿元，同比收窄 13%。3）阿里云录得 301 亿元收入，同比增长 18%、增速提升；经调整 EBITA 约 24 亿元，同 比增长 69%。4）菜鸟录得 216 亿元收入，同比下降 12%；经调整 EBITA 约-6 亿元，同比收窄 55%。5）本地生活录得 161 亿元收入，同比增长 10%；经调整 EBITA 约-23 亿元，同比收窄 28%。6）大文娱录得 55.5 亿 收入，同比增长 12%；经调整 EBI ...

电商和云增长提速，AI 投入坚定不改 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 阿里巴巴发布 2025 年 3 月季度业绩。阿里巴巴 FY2025Q4 财季（截至 2025 年 3 月自然季度）录得总收入 2364.54 亿元，同比增长 7%。本季 non-GAAP 归母净利润约 300 亿元，同比增长 18%。 按业务条线看：1）淘天集团录得 1014 亿元收入，同比增长 9%；经调整 EBITA 约 417 亿元，同比增长 8%。2）国际商业录得 336 亿元收入，同 比增长 22%；经调整 EBITA 约-36 亿元，同比收窄 13%。3）阿里云录得 301 亿元收入，同比增长 18%、增速提升；经调整 EBITA 约 24 亿元，同 比增长 69%。4）菜鸟录得 216 亿元收入，同比下降 12%；经调整 EBITA 约-6 亿元，同比收窄 55%。5）本地生活录得 161 亿元收入，同比增长 10%；经调整 EBITA 约-23 亿元，同比收窄 28%。6）大文娱录得 55.5 亿 收入，同比增长 12%；经调整 EBI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The e-commerce business is experiencing revenue and profit recovery driven by GMV growth and an increase in take rate, indicating a stable fundamental value for the company. The cloud business is accelerating growth due to AI, and other new business operations are showing upward trends, gradually realizing loss reduction expectations. Overall, the company has a solid fundamental base with upward potential, making it a meaningful investment at the current valuation level [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 941.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 79.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10% [7]. - For FY2025, revenue is forecasted at 995.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, and net profit is expected to rise to 129.47 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 62.4% [7]. - Projections for FY2026 to FY2028 indicate revenues of 1,084.21 billion yuan, 1,176.79 billion yuan, and 1,268.93 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 142.48 billion yuan, 165.45 billion yuan, and 186.41 billion yuan, showing consistent growth rates [6][7]. Segment Performance - The core segment performance for Q4 FY25 met expectations, with Taotian Group's customer management revenue growing by 11.8% and EBITA increasing by 8.4% year-on-year. The platform's take rate has improved, contributing to accelerated performance growth [6]. - The Intelligent Cloud Group reported a revenue growth of 17.7%, entering an accelerated growth phase driven by AI, although EBITA margin decreased slightly [6]. - The International Retail Business continued its high growth trend with a revenue increase of 22.3%, and improvements in EBITA margin were noted [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecasted P/E ratio of 27.2 for FY2024, decreasing to 11.6 by FY2028, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [7]. - The projected P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2.2 in FY2024 to 1.4 in FY2028, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [7].