证券研究报告 | 2025年01月12日 优于大市 阿里巴巴-SW（09988.HK） 3QFY25 前瞻：淘天货币化率企稳回升，公司持续收缩非核心 业务 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 联系人： | 王颖婕 | 0755-81983057 | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 阿里巴巴即将发布 2025 财年三季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）料 3QFY25 收入同比+5%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 20%：收入看，我们预计阿里巴巴实 现营收 2,737 亿元，YoY+5%。我们预计本季度收入增速环比基本持平，其中淘天/国际数字商业/本地生活 /菜鸟/云智能收入增速分别为 3%/27%/13%/10%/10%。预计本季度淘天 GMV 增速与大盘持平，份额稳住，货 币化率 ...

公司研究 2025 年 1 月 2 日 ——阿里巴巴-W（9988.HK）出售高鑫零售股权点评 要点 聚焦主业，非核心资产持续变现 出售全部高鑫零售股权，最高有权收取金额为 131.38 亿港元 事件：2024 年 12 月 31 日，阿里巴巴子公司及 New Retail 与德弘资本订立协 议，出售所持高鑫零售全部股权，合计占高鑫零售已发行股份总数约 78.7%。 待售股份共计 75.08 亿股，其中 73.66%由阿里巴巴子公司間接持有，5.04%由 New Retail 持有。 其中，New Retail 是一家由 New Retail Strategic Opportunities Fund, L.P. 全资拥有的投资公司。阿里巴巴集团对 New Retail 的投资决策能行使重大影 响，但 New Retail 并不作为阿里巴巴子公司核算，阿里巴巴对 New Retail Strategic Opportunities Fund, L.P.的投资采取权益法核算。德弘资本专注于 私募股权投资，主张长期可持续方针。 持续聚焦核心业务发展，非核心业务逐步变现 高鑫零售以"大润发"、"大润发 Super"、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 117.52 [4][6] Core Views - The company's FY2Q2025 revenue reached RMB 236.5 billion (+5.2% YoY), slightly below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 239.4 billion, while adjusted net profit was RMB 36.5 billion (-9.1% YoY), slightly above Bloomberg consensus of RMB 35.6 billion [1] - The company continues to optimize its business environment, reduce merchant costs, and enhance user experience, leading to stable profitability and significant shareholder returns through buybacks [1] - Taotian Group's revenue grew by 1.4% YoY to RMB 99 billion, with adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.6 billion (-5.3% YoY), driven by increased user investment and improved monetization potential [1] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 29.6 billion, with adjusted EBITA up 89% YoY to RMB 2.7 billion, driven by strong growth in AI-related revenue [1] - International Digital Commerce revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 31.7 billion, with strong performance in cross-border businesses [1] - Cainiao's revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB 24.6 billion, supported by cross-border logistics services [1] - Local Services revenue grew 14% YoY to RMB 17.7 billion, with narrowed losses due to improved operational efficiency [1] - Digital Media and Entertainment revenue declined 1% YoY to RMB 5.7 billion, with reduced losses driven by advertising growth and content investment efficiency [1] - The company repurchased USD 4.1 billion worth of shares in FY2Q25, reducing total shares outstanding by 2.1% [1] Business Segment Analysis Taotian Group - Revenue: RMB 99 billion (+1.4% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 44.6 billion (-5.3% YoY) [1] - GMV growth was offset by a decline in AOV, while CMR revenue grew 2.5% YoY to RMB 70.4 billion [1] - User growth: MAU reached a record 944 million, with 88VIP users exceeding 46 million (+50% YoY) [1] - Organizational restructuring: Integration of domestic and international e-commerce under a unified business group [1] - Outlook: GMV is expected to grow steadily, with monetization potential from full-site promotion and service fees [1] Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue: RMB 29.6 billion (+7% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 2.7 billion (+89% YoY) [1] - Public cloud revenue grew double-digit YoY, with AI-related revenue growing triple-digit for five consecutive quarters [1] - The company launched the Tongyi Qianwen 2.5 AI model, reducing API call rates to improve cost-effectiveness [1] International Digital Commerce - Revenue: RMB 31.7 billion (+29% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 2.9 billion [1] - Strong growth in cross-border retail, with AliExpress and Trendyol driving performance [1] - International wholesale revenue grew 9% YoY to RMB 6.1 billion [1] Cainiao - Revenue: RMB 24.6 billion (+8% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 60 million [1] - Focus on building a highly digitized global logistics network and enhancing cross-border e-commerce synergies [1] Local Services - Revenue: RMB 17.7 billion (+14% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 400 million [1] - Improved operational efficiency and order growth in Ele.me and Amap [1] Digital Media and Entertainment - Revenue: RMB 5.7 billion (-1% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 200 million [1] - Reduced losses driven by advertising growth and content investment efficiency [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts FY2025-2027 revenue at RMB 10,036/10,916/11,831 billion and adjusted net profit at RMB 1,512/1,715/1,919 billion [4][6] - The company's valuation is estimated at RMB 2,073.8 billion, with a target price of HKD 117.52 per share [4][6] - Taotian Group is valued at RMB 1,352.1 billion using a 9x PE multiple for FY26 [8] - Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at RMB 195.5 billion using a 24x PE multiple for FY26 [66] - International Digital Commerce is valued at RMB 315.1 billion using a 2.0x PS multiple for FY26 [69] - Cainiao is valued at RMB 15.4 billion using a 12x PE multiple for FY26 [43] - Local Services is valued at RMB 150.3 billion using a 2.0x PS multiple for FY26 [12] - Digital Media and Entertainment is valued at RMB 45.5 billion using a PS multiple and market capitalization approach [46]

Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 479,739 million (USD 68,362 million), a 5% increase compared to RMB 458,946 million in the same period last year[16] - Operating profit for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 71,235 million (USD 10,151 million), a 6% decrease compared to RMB 76,074 million in the same period last year[11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 98,488 million (USD 14,034 million), a 3% decrease compared to RMB 101,289 million in the same period last year[11] - Net income for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 67,569 million (USD 9,629 million), a 13% increase compared to RMB 59,696 million in the same period last year[11] - Diluted earnings per share for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 3.50 (USD 0.50), a 16% increase compared to RMB 3.01 in the same period last year[11] - The decrease in operating profit was primarily due to a reversal of equity incentive expenses of RMB 6,901 million recorded in the six months ended September 30, 2023[12] - The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was mainly due to increased investment in e-commerce business, partially offset by revenue growth and improved operational efficiency[13] - The increase in net income was primarily driven by changes in the fair value of equity investments and a reduction in investment impairments, partially offset by a decrease in operating profit and an increase in net exchange losses[13] - Operating profit for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 71,235 million (USD 10,151 million), representing 15% of revenue, a 6% decrease year-over-year due to the reversal of equity incentive expenses in 2023[57] - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 98,488 million (USD 14,034 million), a 3% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to increased investment in e-commerce[58] - Net profit for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 67,569 million (USD 9,629 million), up from RMB 59,696 million in the same period of 2023, driven by mark-to-market gains on equity investments[66] - Non-GAAP net profit for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 77,209 million (USD 11,002 million), a 9% decrease year-over-year[66] - Diluted earnings per ADS for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 28.00 (USD 3.99), up from RMB 24.08 in the same period of 2023[69] - Net profit for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 67,569 million (USD 9,629 million), compared to RMB 59,696 million for the same period in 2023[77] - Adjusted EBITA for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 85,596 million (USD 12,197 million), compared to RMB 88,216 million for the same period in 2023[77] - Adjusted EBITDA for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 98,488 million (USD 14,034 million), compared to RMB 101,289 million for the same period in 2023[77] - Non-GAAP net profit for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 77,209 million (USD 11,002 million), compared to RMB 85,110 million for the same period in 2023[79] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 3.50 (USD 0.50), compared to RMB 3.01 for the same period in 2023[83] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 3.94 (USD 0.56), compared to RMB 4.13 for the same period in 2023[83] Segment Performance - Taotian Group's China retail commerce revenue decreased by 1% YoY to RMB 200,429 million (USD 28,561 million), driven by an 8% decline in direct sales revenue[22][24] - Cloud Intelligence Group revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 56,159 million (USD 8,003 million), driven by double-digit growth in public cloud products, including AI-related products[27] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's international retail commerce revenue grew 37% YoY to RMB 49,309 million (USD 7,026 million), driven by growth in AliExpress Choice and Trendyol[29] - Cainiao Group revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB 51,458 million (USD 7,333 million), primarily driven by growth in cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions[33] - Taotian Group's adjusted EBITA decreased by 3% YoY to RMB 93,400 million (USD 13,309 million), mainly due to increased investments in user experience[26] - Cloud Intelligence Group's adjusted EBITA surged 115% YoY to RMB 4,998 million (USD 712 million), driven by a shift to higher-margin public cloud products and improved operational efficiency[28] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB 6,611 million (USD 942 million), primarily due to increased investments in AliExpress and Trendyol's cross-border businesses[32] - Cainiao Group's adjusted EBITA decreased by 62% YoY to RMB 673 million (USD 96 million), mainly due to increased investments in cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions[34] - Local生活 Group revenue increased by 13% YoY to RMB 33,954 million (USD 4,838 million)[20] - All other segments revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB 99,179 million (USD 14,133 million), including businesses like Freshippo, Alibaba Health, and Fliggy[20][18] - Local Life Group revenue increased by 13% to RMB 33,954 million (USD 4,838 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, driven by order growth in Amap and Ele.me, as well as increased marketing service revenue[35] - Local Life Group's adjusted EBITA loss narrowed to RMB 777 million (USD 111 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 4,546 million in the same period last year, due to improved operational efficiency and scale expansion[36] - Digital Media and Entertainment Group revenue grew by 1% to RMB 11,275 million (USD 1,607 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024[37] - Digital Media and Entertainment Group's adjusted EBITA loss widened to RMB 281 million (USD 40 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 138 million in the same period last year[39] - All Other segments revenue increased by 6% to RMB 99,179 million (USD 14,133 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, primarily driven by growth in retail commerce, including Hema and AliHealth[40] - All Other segments' adjusted EBITA loss narrowed to RMB 2,845 million (USD 405 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a loss of RMB 3,170 million in the same period last year[41] Expenses and Costs - Operating costs for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 290,135 million (USD 41,344 million), accounting for 60.5% of revenue, down from 61.4% in the same period last year[47] - Product development expenses for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 27,555 million (USD 3,927 million), accounting for 5.7% of revenue, up from 5.4% in the same period last year[48] - Sales and marketing expenses for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 65,167 million (USD 9,286 million), accounting for 13.6% of revenue, up from 11.4% in the same period last year, primarily due to increased investment in e-commerce business[48] - Share-based compensation expenses for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 8,277 million (USD 1,179 million), up from RMB 5,201 million in the same period last year[49] - Intangible assets amortization and impairment decreased by 30% to RMB 3,441 million (USD 490 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 4,910 million in the same period of 2023[56] Cash Flow and Investments - Interest income and net investment gains for the six months ended September 30, 2024, were RMB 17,129 million (USD 2,441 million), compared to a net loss of RMB 762 million in the same period of 2023[60] - Cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments, and other financial investments totaled RMB 554,378 million (USD 78,998 million) as of September 30, 2024, down from RMB 617,230 million as of March 31, 2024, due to share repurchases and dividend payments[70] - Free cash flow for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 31,107 million (USD 4,433 million), a 63% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to investments in Alibaba Cloud infrastructure[71] - Net cash used in investing activities for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 34,865 million (USD 4,968 million), primarily due to an increase in other financial investments of RMB 113,387 million (USD 16,158 million), capital expenditures of RMB 29,585 million (USD 4,216 million), and cash outflows for investments and acquisitions of RMB 5,807 million (USD 827 million), partially offset by a decrease in short-term investments of RMB 105,470 million (USD 15,029 million) and cash inflows from the disposal of investments of RMB 6,509 million (USD 928 million)[72] - Net cash used in financing activities for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 86,364 million (USD 12,307 million), mainly due to share repurchases of RMB 72,889 million (USD 10,387 million), dividend payments of RMB 29,022 million (USD 4,136 million), and cash outflows for acquiring additional equity in non-wholly owned subsidiaries of RMB 19,947 million (USD 2,842 million), partially offset by net proceeds from convertible unsecured senior notes and capped call transactions of RMB 31,065 million (USD 4,427 million)[74] - Free cash flow for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 31,107 million (USD 4,433 million), compared to RMB 84,309 million for the same period in 2023[86] - Operating cash flow for the six months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 65,074 million (USD 9,273 million), compared to RMB 94,537 million in the same period in 2023[96] - The company issued USD 5 billion in convertible notes in May 2024 and USD 2.65 billion in fixed-rate notes in November 2024, along with RMB 17 billion in RMB-denominated notes[97] - The company's debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio increased from 0.89 as of March 31, 2024, to 1.07 as of September 30, 2024[97] - Ant Group equity stake is 33% on a fully diluted basis as of September 30, 2024, with dividends received totaling RMB 2,630 million (USD 375 million) in the six months ended September 30, 2024[98] - No other significant investments held as of September 30, 2024[99] - Completed conversion of RMB 400 million convertible loan into approximately 6% additional equity in Shenzhen Disifang Information Technology Co., Ltd., making it a consolidated subsidiary in October 2024[101] - Capital expenditures totaled RMB 29,585 million (USD 4,216 million) for the six months ended September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 12,077 million in the same period in 2023[107] - Capital expenditure commitments amounted to RMB 23,997 million (USD 3,420 million) as of September 30, 2024, up from RMB 18,372 million as of March 31, 2024[107] - Assets pledged as collateral for bank loans had a book value of RMB 27,767 million as of September 30, 2024, down from RMB 34,056 million as of March 31, 2024[103] - No significant contingent liabilities as of September 30, 2024[105] - No significant post-reporting period events affecting the company since September 30, 2024[110] Corporate Governance and Leadership - Wu Yongming has been the CEO and Director of the company since September 2023, and also serves as the Chairman and CEO of the Cloud Intelligence Group since the same period[118] - J. Michael Evans has been the President of the company since August 2015 and a Director since September 2014, with extensive experience at Goldman Sachs[120] - Maggie Wu has been a Director since September 2020 and was the CFO of Alibaba Group from May 2013 to March 2022[121] - Jerry Yang has been a Director since September 2024 and is a founding partner of AME Cloud Ventures, with a background as co-founder of Yahoo[122] - Wan Ling Martello has been a Director since September 2015 and is a founding partner of BayPine, with previous roles at Nestlé and Walmart[123] - Shan Weijian has been a Director since March 2022 and is the Executive Chairman and co-founder of PAG, with a background in investment banking and academia[125] - Lee Yuen Lien has been a Director since August 2022 and is the Executive Chairman of Hysan Development Company and an independent non-executive director of HSBC[126] - The company's board has established several committees including Audit, Compensation, Nomination and Corporate Governance, Sustainability, Compliance and Risk, and Capital Management Committees[130] - The Audit Committee is chaired by Mr. Ng Kong Ping and includes Ms. Wan Ling Martello and Mr. Shan Weijian[131] - The Compensation Committee is chaired by Mr. Jerry Yang and includes Mr. Ng Kong Ping and Mr. Kabir Misra[132] - The Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee is chaired by Ms. Lee Yuen Lien and includes Mr. Jerry Yang[133] - The Sustainability Committee is chaired by Mr. Jerry Yang and includes Mr. Joseph Tsai and Ms. Maggie Wu[134] - The Compliance and Risk Committee is chaired by Ms. Lee Yuen Lien and includes Mr. Ng Kong Ping, Mr. Kabir Misra, and Mr. J. Michael Evans[135] - The Capital Management Committee is chaired by Mr. Joseph Tsai and includes Mr. Yongming Wu, Mr. J. Michael Evans, and Ms. Maggie Wu[136] - Mr. Joseph Tsai holds approximately 1.44% of the company's shares through various entities and trusts[140] - Mr. Yongming Wu holds approximately 0.16% of the company's shares through direct ownership and trusts[140] - Mr. J. Michael Evans holds approximately 0.10% of the company's shares directly[140] - Total issued shares as of September 30, 2024, are 19,159,821,492, including repurchased but not yet canceled shares[143] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. holds 849,539,881 shares (long position) and 681,445,750 shares (short position), representing 4.43% and 3.56% of total shares respectively[146] - Shiodome Project 17 GK holds 2,195,000,000 shares (long position) and 2,195,000,000 shares (short position), representing 11.46% of total shares each[146] - SoftBank Group Corp. holds 2,293,607,896 shares (long position) and 2,293,605,600 shares (short position), representing 11.97% of total shares each[146] - Goldman Sachs holds 982,509,304 shares (long position) and 822,048,311 shares (short position), representing 5.13% and 4.29% of total shares respectively[146] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. indirectly holds 39,177,042 shares (long position) and 71,377,100 shares (short position) through listed derivatives with physical settlement[148] - Shiodome Project 17 GK indirectly holds 2,195,000,000 shares (short position) through non-listed derivatives with cash or physical settlement[150] - SoftBank Group Corp. indirectly holds 2,293,605,600 shares (short position) through non-listed derivatives with physical settlement[150] - Goldman Sachs holds 338,899,950 shares (long position) and 327,796,944 shares (short position) through physically settled listed derivatives[151] - The company's 2014 equity incentive plan expired on September 18, 2024, with no further grants to be made under this plan[154] - A total of 93,627,776 shares (equivalent to 11,703,472 ADS) were granted to eligible participants during the reporting period, representing approximately 0.5% of the company's weighted average issued shares[154] - Restricted stock units (RSUs) granted to employee participants during the reporting period totaled 63,806,796 shares, with 20,920,029 shares vested and 39,289,077 shares unvested[157] - The fair value of RSUs granted on May 13, 2024, was $80.04 per share, based on the closing price of ADS on the NYSE the day before the grant date[165] - RSUs granted to directors on August 17, 2024, had a fair

[Table_Page] 季报点评|零售业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 阿 里 巴 巴 （ BABA ） / 阿 里 巴 巴 - SW(09988.HK) FY25Q2 点评：淘天持续投入换增长 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（若无特别说明，本文货币单位均采用人民币单位） ⚫ 根据公司财报和公司官方公众号，公司公布 FY25Q2（日历年 24Q3） 业绩，收入同比增长 5%至 2365.0 亿元，经调整 EBITA 为 405.6 亿 元，同比下降 5.3%，对应 margin 17.2%。FY25Q2 公司回购了 4.05 亿普通股（价值 41 亿美元），较 24Q2 发行股本减少 2.1%。 ⚫ 淘天集团：FY25Q2 淘天集团实现收入同比增长 1%至 989.9 亿元， EBITA 下降 5%至 445.9 亿元。本季度 GMV 实现增长，货币化率表现 稳定，CMR 收入同增 2.5%至 703.6 亿元，主要得益于 88VIP 用户数 量双位数增长（超 4600 万）；公司持续投入用户体验和商 ...

阿里巴巴（BABA.US/9988.HK） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 11 月 21 日 电商业务回归用户，积极回购提升公司价值 当前中国电商市场面临较多的不确定性和激烈的竞争环境，本季度 阿里巴巴重点针对提升用户体验，通过产品价格力和客户服务获取 用户的增长与留存，并面对商家推出了让利措施和提效的营销工 具。尽管短期面临不确定性，长期将有助于巩固公司的市场份额以 及货币化水平。同时，阿里云作为国内领先的云厂商，将引领 AI 相 关的需求。此外，公司更加注重亏损业务的减亏，并通过积极回购 不断提升公司价值，本财年流通股数量已减少 4.4%。 FY2025Q2 业绩摘要：2024 年 9 月 30 日财季，收入为人民币 2,365.03 亿元，同比增长 5%。经营利润为 352.46 亿元，同比增长 5%，股权激 励费用同比下降 39%至 41.46 亿元，经调整 EBITA 同比下降 5%至 405.61 亿元。净利润为 435.47 亿元，同比增长 63%，主要反映了公 司持有的股权投资变动，经调整净利润为同比下降 9%至 365.18 亿 元。经营现金流同比下降 36%，自由现金流同比下降 70%，主 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988 HK) [1][3] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q2 revenue growth was slightly below expectations, with a 5% YoY increase to RMB 2365 billion, missing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 2394 billion [1][18] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 36 5 billion (YoY -9%), exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 356 2 billion [1][18] - Taotian Group's GMV showed healthy growth, with a 1% YoY increase in revenue to RMB 989 94 billion, driven by double-digit order growth [2][25] - International Digital Commerce revenue exceeded expectations, with strong growth in Choice and improved unit economics [2][31] - Local Living Services saw significant narrowing of losses, with continued growth in Amap and Ele me orders [2][31] - Alibaba Cloud achieved double-digit growth in public cloud products, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit YoY growth for five consecutive quarters [2][37] Business Performance Summary Taotian Group - Revenue increased 1% YoY to RMB 989 94 billion, with customer management revenue up 2% [2][25] - 88VIP members exceeded 46 million, with GMV growth driven by increased purchase frequency, partially offset by lower average order value [2][25] - EBITA margin declined 3 17 percentage points YoY to 45 04%, reflecting increased investment [2][25] International Digital Commerce - Revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 316 72 billion, with EBITA margin at -9 17% [2][31] - International retail commerce revenue increased 37% YoY to RMB 256 18 billion, driven by cross-border business growth, particularly AliExpress Choice [2][31] - International wholesale commerce revenue rose 11% YoY to RMB 60 54 billion [2][31] Local Living Services - Revenue increased 14% YoY to RMB 177 25 billion, driven by order growth in Amap and Ele me [2][31] - Losses narrowed significantly due to improved operational efficiency and business scale [2][31] Alibaba Cloud - Revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 296 10 billion, with public cloud products driving double-digit growth [2][37] - AI-related products achieved triple-digit YoY growth for five consecutive quarters [2][37] Cainiao - Revenue increased 8% YoY to RMB 246 47 billion, driven by cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions [2][32] Financial Forecasts - FY2025/FY2026/FY2027 EPS forecasts maintained at RMB 8 09/8 76/9 48, with corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 10 0/9 3/8 6x [3][37] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 941 168 billion in FY2024A to RMB 1 194 600 billion in FY2027E, with a CAGR of 8 3% [1][44] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 80 009 billion in FY2024A to RMB 134 062 billion in FY2027E [1][44]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 19 年 月 日 2024-04-23 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） 变现提速待推进、淘天仍处投入期 阿里巴巴发布 2024 九月季度业绩。阿里巴巴 2025Q2 财季（截至 9 月的 自然季度）收入为 2365 亿元，同比增长 5%。其中淘天、国际商业、本地 生活、菜鸟、云智能、大文娱收入分别为 990/317/177/246/296/57 亿元， 同比增速分别为 1%/29%/14%/8%/7%/-1.5%。 公司本季调整后 EBITA 约 406 亿元，同比下滑 5%，EBITA 利润率约 17%。 其中，淘天、国际商业、本地生活、菜鸟、云智能、大文娱本季的调整后 EBITA 利润率为 45%/-9%/-2%/0%/9%/-3%。本季公司 non-GAAP 归母 净利润 364 亿元、同比下滑 9%。 淘天：变现提速待推进，淘天仍处投入期。本季公司客户管理收入（CMR） 同比增长 2%，主要是由于电商 GMV 的增长。变现率角度，此前"全站推 广"工具的渗透、以及 9 月开始 0.6%技术服务费的收取，对变现率有正 向作用；部分被 ...

阿里巴巴[Table_StockNameRptType] -SW（9988.HK） 公司点评 FY25Q2 业绩点评：利润改善明显，淘天货币化率企稳 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...