连平：当前中国金融结构发生的重要变化

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant changes in China's financial structure, emphasizing the shift from indirect financing to direct financing, driven by policy initiatives and evolving economic needs [2][4]. Group 1: Financing Trends - The proportion of indirect financing in social financing has decreased, with direct financing's share increasing, marking a historical shift where indirect financing's share fell below 50% for the first time [3]. - As of November 2025, indirect financing accounted for 45.7% while direct financing reached 47.4%, indicating a notable trend where direct financing is outpacing indirect financing [3]. - The growth rate of credit has significantly declined, with the credit balance growth dropping from 12.8% in 2020 to 6.4% in 2025, reflecting a substantial decrease in credit demand [3][4]. Group 2: Direct Financing Growth - Direct financing has shown robust growth, supported by a more market-oriented allocation of funds and the development of multi-tiered capital markets, including platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [4][5]. - The demand for direct financing is increasingly driven by high-tech industries and emerging sectors, which require various forms of direct financing such as equity investments and corporate bond issuances [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article predicts that active fiscal policies will continue, with a focus on maintaining moderate fiscal expansion to support market stability amid global uncertainties [6]. - Traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure are expected to stabilize and improve gradually, but their financing needs will not return to previous levels, with credit growth projected to remain below 7% [6][9]. - The capital market is anticipated to develop positively, with a growing demand for stocks driven by high-tech industry listings and unprecedented policy support for investor protection [7][8]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Implications - The ongoing shift towards direct financing is expected to optimize China's financial structure, with direct financing potentially exceeding indirect financing in the near future [8][10]. - This transition is projected to lower financing costs, reduce corporate debt burdens, and enhance the efficiency of capital allocation, ultimately supporting high-quality economic development [9][10].