博道基金张建胜：不在风口追高，成长投资更需“精打细算”

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Jian Sheng's investment philosophy emphasizes a low-risk approach, focusing on absolute returns rather than high-risk growth stocks, which has led to impressive performance metrics, including a 45.97% return in 2025 and a 65.38% return over the past three years [1]. Group 1: Investment Characteristics - The investment strategy is characterized by a top-down approach with a concentrated selection of stocks, typically holding 1-2 stocks per industry, resulting in low turnover rates [2]. - The portfolio is industry-balanced, primarily focusing on high-end manufacturing, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors, without betting on specific sub-sectors [3]. - A moderately contrarian style is adopted, with an emphasis on valuation and avoiding pure beta returns, leading to early buying and selling of growth stocks compared to peers [3][11]. Group 2: Sector Insights - In the AI industry chain, there is a preference for storage and connectivity segments, with increased focus on AI application investments starting in 2026 [3][20]. - The consumer sector faces challenges with insufficient overall consumption, leading to investments in companies adapting to changes in consumption channels [4]. - In the Hong Kong innovative drug sector, the phase of valuation recovery has ended, with current investments concentrated in companies with overseas commercialization channels [5][23]. - The overall valuation in the metals sector, excluding gold, remains low, and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US are favorable for commodities [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for the bull market is optimistic, with the belief that it is entering its second half, necessitating a more stable mindset and a balanced portfolio approach [6][19]. - The investment opportunities for 2026 are expected to diversify beyond non-linear growth sectors like AI and resources, with a focus on cyclical industries experiencing valuation recovery [19]. - The "re-globalization" narrative is seen as beneficial for Chinese companies, enhancing their performance and long-term growth potential, which may lead to a revaluation of core Chinese assets, including those in the Hong Kong market [18][19]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The investment approach will involve a slower trading pace, with a more cautious evaluation of opportunity costs, while maintaining a left-side investment framework [28]. - Emphasis will be placed on large-cap stocks due to the increasing influence of passive and quantitative funds in the market [29]. - The strategy will focus on companies with price elasticity and those that can create demand through supply, which may become advantageous in the current bull market environment [29].