国泰海通证券研究·2026-01-13 13:20Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation in beer demand, indicating that the domestic craft beer market has significant growth potential, with leading breweries likely to benefit from this trend [1][2] - The new retail model is expected to facilitate regional breweries in overcoming market disadvantages and breaking through sales ceilings for individual products [1] - The beer industry may have entered a new normal of stock competition, emphasizing the importance of category and channel changes as structural opportunities [1] Category Insights - The rise of craft beer is seen as a major opportunity driven by generational shifts in consumer preferences, with the current penetration rate of craft beer in China estimated at around 3%, compared to 5-15% in developed countries [2] - The craft beer market is expected to experience limited concentration in the medium term, with supply chains and budget markets gravitating towards leading brands, while flavor innovation and niche markets may still be dominated by smaller brands [2] - Major breweries are positioned to fully capitalize on the craft beer trend, as there are no strict regulations in China regarding the scale and independence of craft breweries, allowing larger companies to compete effectively [2] Channel Insights - The new retail channels for beer have grown rapidly, driven by consumer demands for convenience, rationality, and differentiation, with the current sales volume in new retail channels estimated at approximately 30 billion yuan and a penetration rate of about 6% [3] - New retail is expected to accelerate channel equality, diminishing the traditional advantages of leading breweries and enabling regional breweries to expand in weaker markets [3] - Despite the rise of new channels, established brands, especially in the mid-to-high-end beer segment, still hold significant competitive advantages due to brand recognition, quality control, and scale effects [3] Investment Recommendations - The short-term outlook for the beer industry is under pressure, but there are opportunities for growth through category innovation and channel transformation [3] - It is recommended to increase holdings in strong regional breweries that can enhance market share and exhibit robust earnings elasticity, as well as in industry leaders with ongoing premiumization, stable performance, and attractive dividend yields [3]