各国2025年股市盘点：美股未达预期

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index saw a cumulative increase of 16.5% in 2025, which is considered satisfactory by U.S. stock investors, but it underperformed compared to other major global indices like the UK's FTSE 100, which rose by 21% [2]. - The S&P 500's performance was also weaker than Germany's DAX index (up 23%) and Spain's IBEX 35 index (up 48%) [3]. - In contrast, the South Korean KOSPI index surged by 75.6%, while the Chinese CSI 300 and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 21% and 28%, respectively [5]. - Precious metals outperformed equities, with gold increasing by 65% and silver by 147%, while Bitcoin fell by 7% during the same period [7]. - The Athens Composite Index in Greece achieved a remarkable 45% increase, surpassing any S&P 500 index fund returns [9]. - A combination of U.S. stocks and Bitcoin yielded lower returns compared to investments in overseas markets and precious metals, highlighting the S&P 500's mediocre performance relative to other asset classes [10]. Structural Issues - The S&P 500 index faces a structural issue due to the over-concentration of AI-related stocks, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks contributing over 50% of the index's gains in the past three years. This concentration leads investors to seek diversification through overseas markets [11]. - The FTSE 100 index, for example, has a high proportion of banking and mining companies, with minimal exposure to the tech sector, making it an attractive option for investors looking to hedge against risks associated with U.S. stocks [11]. Future Outlook - Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research believes that the upward trend in U.S. stocks is not over, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 points by the end of the year, an 11% increase from current levels [12]. - Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, notes that the S&P 500 has recorded annual gains of over 15% for three consecutive years, suggesting an average return of about 8% for the following year, with a potential maximum drawdown of around 14% [12].