升值结汇对流动性、PPI和市场的影响分析

Core Viewpoint - In recent years, Chinese export enterprises have shown a clear tendency to "hold foreign exchange without settling." Starting from early 2025, as the RMB enters an appreciation cycle and Chinese assets are revalued, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange is expected to rebound. The recent RMB exchange rate against the USD has broken through 7.0, and mainstream expectations suggest that the RMB will continue to appreciate, further stimulating enterprises' settlement sentiment and positively impacting liquidity and the market [2][3][12]. Group 1: Settlement Willingness and Scale - The "pending settlement" scale for enterprises is approximately $930 billion, with an expected increase in settlement willingness by 2025. From early 2022 to November 2025, export enterprises accumulated $930 billion in foreign exchange that has not been settled [3][7]. - The settlement rate, which measures the proportion of foreign exchange that enterprises actively convert to RMB, is a good indicator of their willingness to settle. A higher settlement rate indicates stronger willingness [8][10]. - Since early 2025, the settlement rate has improved significantly, rising from a low of 54.4% in February 2025 to a high of 71.2% in September 2025, indicating a shift from "holding foreign exchange" to "steady settlement" [10][11]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Settlement Willingness - Two main factors influence enterprises' willingness to settle: expectations regarding the RMB exchange rate and the comparative returns of holding different currencies. When enterprises expect the RMB to appreciate, they are more inclined to settle early to avoid exchange losses [11][13]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased due to favorable developments in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and effective responses to trade tensions, which have boosted risk appetite and improved the performance of Chinese financial assets [13][14]. Group 3: Impact on Liquidity and Market - The settlement of foreign exchange essentially converts foreign assets into RMB deposits, impacting the balance sheets of the central bank, commercial banks, and enterprises. However, the effect on the base currency supply is minimal if commercial banks do not sell the foreign exchange to the central bank [15][20]. - If 20% of the pending settlement is realized by the end of 2026, it could lead to an increase in M1 by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB, contributing about 1.2 percentage points to M1 growth [24][27]. - The increase in M1 is expected to have limited impact on PPI due to insufficient effective demand, and some high-risk enterprises may channel funds into the stock market, providing incremental capital to A-shares [27][28][31].