达利欧警告：今年要小心

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the current AI hype may face a turning point in 2026, suggesting that overvalued stocks could undergo a "reality check" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and AI Impact - In 2025, the U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 index rising by 16%, driven primarily by technology stocks amid optimistic investor sentiment towards AI [3]. - Despite the strong market performance in 2025, investor sentiment was sensitive to any warning signals regarding AI, as evidenced by a 1.4% drop in the Nasdaq index following comments from OpenAI's CEO about a potential AI bubble [3][4]. Group 2: AI Bubble Concerns - Concerns regarding the AI bubble largely stem from the slow pace of practical applications, with a study from MIT indicating that up to 95% of generative AI pilot projects in enterprises have yet to become profitable [4]. - Dalio emphasizes that the current enthusiasm for AI has reached levels comparable to the pre-crash periods of 1929 and 2000, estimating it to be around 80% of those historical peaks [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Factors - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is identified as a significant risk for 2026, particularly with the potential appointment of a successor to Jerome Powell who may favor aggressive rate cuts [5]. - Dalio notes that a dovish stance from the Fed could further inflate the AI bubble, while also highlighting that gold outperformed the S&P 500 by 47% in 2025, indicating a shift towards safer assets [5]. Group 4: Global Capital Trends - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, which fell by 10% in 2025, has obscured underlying market vulnerabilities, making U.S. assets appear stronger than they are when viewed from a currency depreciation perspective [5]. - Dalio points out that global capital flows are shifting, with markets in Europe, China, the UK, and Japan outperforming the U.S., and emerging markets showing particularly strong returns, with the MSCI index rising by 33% [5][6].