读研报 | “连阳”之下的关切

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares is attributed to a combination of market sentiment and capital inflow, with expectations for continued upward movement in 2026 [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of a strong start in 2026 is not unique to A-shares, as global markets have also experienced robust beginnings due to factors like liquidity expectations and geopolitical changes [2] - Reports indicate that the influx of capital at the beginning of the year was driven by investors fearing to miss out on potential gains, leading to a rapid increase in market participation [1][2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators show improvement, with the PMI rising above the threshold in December 2025, signaling better production and demand conditions [2] - December 2025 inflation data revealed a CPI increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI showed a narrowing decline, indicating a potential recovery in prices [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has surged, with an emotional index reaching a new high of 98.1 on January 9, 2026, indicating a state of euphoria in the market [4] - The trading volume of small-cap stocks has reached historically high levels, suggesting heightened speculative activity among investors [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Individual investors are encouraged to adopt a more measured approach, as they do not face the same pressures as institutional investors to outperform quickly [4] - The focus should be on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term gains, aligning with the goal of achieving steady returns [4]