分化、新范式、Agent 与全球 AI 竞赛，中国模型主力选手们的 2026 预测

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant trends in AI model differentiation, highlighting the divide between To B and To C applications, and the emergence of new paradigms in AI development [7][8][9]. Group 1: Model Differentiation - There is a clear trend of differentiation in AI models, driven by varying demands in To B and To C scenarios, as well as the natural evolution of AI labs [7]. - In the To C space, the bottleneck is often not the model's size but the lack of context and environment, which affects user experience [8]. - In the To B market, users are willing to pay a premium for stronger models, leading to a growing divide between strong and weak models [9]. Group 2: New Paradigms - The concept of autonomous learning is gaining consensus as a new paradigm, with expectations that nearly everyone will invest in this direction by 2026 [7]. - Scaling will continue, but it is essential to distinguish between known paths (increasing data and computing power) and unknown paths (finding new paradigms) [12][13]. - The goal of autonomous learning is to enable models to self-reflect and learn, gradually improving their effectiveness through self-assessment [14]. Group 3: Agent Development - Coding is seen as a necessary step towards developing agents, with the integration of reinforcement learning and real programming environments being crucial [22]. - The distinction between To B and To C agents is evident, where To C products may not correlate with model intelligence, while To B agents focus on solving real-world tasks [27]. - The future of agents may involve a more autonomous operation, where users set general goals and agents work independently to achieve them [30]. Group 4: Global AI Competition - There is optimism regarding China's potential to enter the global AI first tier within 3-5 years, leveraging its ability to replicate successful models efficiently [29]. - However, challenges remain, including structural differences in computing power between China and the U.S., and the need for a more mature To B market [38]. - Historical trends suggest that constraints can drive innovation, with Chinese teams potentially finding new algorithmic solutions due to their resource limitations [39].