全球锂价年度趋势预测与分析(2026)｜深度

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, with prices showing a "V-shaped" trend in 2025, initially declining to a low of 58,000 yuan/ton before rebounding to around 120,000 yuan/ton by year-end [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, lithium carbonate prices surged by 200.77% from their low, driven by supply constraints from regulatory changes and increased demand from energy storage [2]. - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in lithium prices due to weak consumption and falling overseas mining costs, while the second half experienced price increases due to supply concerns and unexpected demand from energy storage [2][4]. - The global lithium resource supply structure is highly concentrated, with Australia, South America, and China being key players, while Africa is emerging as a significant growth area [6][12]. Group 2: Supply and Production - In 2025, global lithium resource production is expected to increase significantly, with new projects coming online, particularly in China and Africa, while production in South America is anticipated to slow down [19][22]. - The total new lithium production capacity from 2023 to 2025 is projected to be 132.2 million tons, primarily from domestic salt lake projects and lithium spodumene production [19][20]. - By 2026, the lithium supply is expected to peak, with a potential shift towards a supply shortage by 2027 due to insufficient new projects [22][42]. Group 3: Demand Trends - The demand for lithium is expected to grow, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, with the latter's share of lithium demand increasing from 11% in 2023 to 15% in 2025 [25][36]. - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 16.78 million units, with a significant portion being electric vehicles, supported by government incentives [26][29]. - The global energy storage market is also experiencing rapid growth, with China's new energy storage installations expected to reach 135 GWh in 2025, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [36][40]. Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Impact - Regulatory changes in various countries, including China and Nigeria, are impacting lithium mining operations, with Nigeria tightening regulations on illegal mining and China adjusting export tax policies [12][13][44]. - The Chinese government is implementing policies to support the recycling and replacement of old vehicles, which is expected to bolster the demand for new energy vehicles and, consequently, lithium [26][44]. - The anticipated reduction in export tax rebates for battery products in 2026 may lead to increased production and demand for lithium resources in the short term [44].