中金：通胀温和，但美联储1月仍不会降息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the moderate inflation data in the U.S. for December, highlighting a significant rise in food prices and stable prices for goods related to tariffs, while also noting a rebound in rent and core inflation in the service sector. The analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in January due to the current inflation trends and labor market conditions [2][6]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in December, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 2.6%, falling short of expectations [2]. - Food prices saw a notable seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.7%, the highest since 2022, driven by rising prices in dairy products (+0.9%), fruits and vegetables (+0.5%), and other household foods (+1.6%) [3]. - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with natural gas prices rising by 4.4%, while gasoline and fuel prices decreased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3]. Impact of Tariffs and Cost Management - The impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation has been milder than previously feared, as supply chains and retailers absorbed some costs. This has hindered the downward transmission of durable goods prices, making it difficult to pass on costs to consumers [4]. - There is a concern that companies that have previously absorbed costs without raising prices may eventually increase prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [4]. Rent and Housing Market Insights - Rent prices have rebounded, with the Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) and primary residential rent increasing from 0.1% to 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a return to normal levels [4][10]. - Despite a cooling labor market and reduced rental demand due to immigration policies, rent inflation is expected to remain moderate, with no signs of a significant downturn in rental prices [4]. Service Sector Inflation Trends - Non-rent core service inflation (supercore) rebounded, with a month-on-month increase from 0% to 0.3%, indicating a recovery in service activities following the government reopening [5]. - Prices related to travel, such as airfare (+5.2%) and hotel accommodations (+3.5%), showed strong increases, while communication services experienced significant price drops, particularly in wireless services due to competitive pricing strategies among major carriers [5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The moderate inflation data is insufficient for the Federal Reserve to consider another rate cut in January, especially after three rate cuts in 2025 that brought the policy rate close to neutral levels [6]. - The labor market, while cooling, has not deteriorated significantly enough to warrant a rate cut, and there are concerns about the perception of political interference if the Fed were to lower rates prematurely [6].