中金 | 美国四大行：降息中的经营韧性

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle highlights the operational resilience of the four major U.S. banks, which are expected to maintain stable performance despite the ongoing economic adjustments [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Income - There is no need for excessive concern regarding the pressure from interest rate cuts, as the market anticipates the pace of cuts, allowing for adjustments on the liability side that help mitigate downward pressure on net interest margins. As of Q3 2025, the average net interest margin for the four major banks is 2.37%, having only decreased by 6 basis points from the peak of the current cycle [3][24]. - The average credit growth for the four major banks has rebounded from 0.8% in Q2 2024 to 6.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery in credit growth rates [3][30]. Group 2: Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to remain at a high level, with the four major banks averaging over 40% of total revenue from non-interest sources, benefiting from diversified business operations. Positive investment sentiment in the U.S. capital markets is likely to support continued high revenue from investment banking, global markets, and asset management [3][32]. Group 3: Asset Quality - The asset quality of the four major banks is relatively stable, although marginal changes should be closely monitored. The overall non-performing loan rate and net charge-off rate in the U.S. banking sector have slightly increased since 2024, but the four major banks maintain better asset quality than the overall industry [3][35]. Group 4: Capital Regulation - Regulatory easing is expected to further release excess capital. The latest capital requirements from the Federal Reserve, effective from October 2025, will lower the capital buffer requirements for many banks, allowing for the release of more excess capital in the coming year, which could enhance returns for bank investors [3][39]. Group 5: Valuation - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the four major U.S. banks has reached a historical high since 2008, reflecting stable macroeconomic expectations, a shift towards a more accommodative regulatory environment, and continuous improvement in bank profitability. The current average P/B is 1.6, above the historical mean of 1.1 [3][42].