【广发宏观陈嘉荔】美国12月通胀数据公布后降息概率有无变化

Core Viewpoint - The December 2025 US CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with previous values and expectations, while the month-on-month increase is 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.1% and in line with expectations. The core CPI year-on-year increase is 2.6%, matching the previous value but lower than the expected 2.7% [1][5][15] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The overall CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by rebounds in food and service prices. The core CPI year-on-year increase is 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, higher than the previous 0.1% but lower than the expected 0.3% [1][5][15] Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices remained flat, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month change of 0%. Notably, used car prices fell significantly by -1.1% month-on-month, which is much lower than the average of 0.5% in October and November, impacting the core CPI by approximately 3 basis points [11][12] - Core service prices rebounded, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, up from an average of 0.1% in October and November, and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Rent was a major contributor, with both OER and primary residence rent increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [2][12][13] Market Reactions - Following the data release, expectations for interest rate cuts remained largely unchanged. The probability of no rate cuts in January, March, and April is high, while the probability of a cut in June is 48.1%, slightly up from 46.2% [3][17] - The US dollar index continued to appreciate slightly, reaching 99.18, while US stock markets saw declines, with the Dow down 0.8% and the S&P 500 down 0.19% [3][17][18] Federal Reserve and Policy Outlook - The divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy is a key market focus. The ongoing criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell regarding potential perjury related to the Fed's renovation project raises questions about the independence of monetary policy [4][19]