【申万固收|地方债周报】Q1已披露计划发行21076亿元，与去年相当但1月体量大——地方债周度跟踪20260109

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in local government bond issuance, highlighting an increase in issuance volume and a lengthening of the weighted average maturity of bonds, while forecasting a decrease in issuance and net financing in the upcoming period [4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds for the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026, reached 1176.64 billion yuan and 1146.68 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 260.00 billion yuan and 174.49 billion yuan in the previous period [4]. - The weighted average maturity of local government bonds increased to 21.36 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 5.26 years [4]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 21076 billion yuan, which is comparable to the same period in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Refinancing - A total of 33 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, along with 256 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and 36 billion yuan for repaying existing debts [4]. - The issuance progress for special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden debts reached 1.3% as of January 9, 2026 [4]. Group 3: Bond Yield and Liquidity - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds narrowed for 10-year bonds to 23.18 basis points, while it widened for 30-year bonds to 17.76 basis points [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds increased to 0.65%, up from 0.24% in the previous period [4]. Group 4: Regional Bond Performance - Regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao exhibited better yield and liquidity for 7-10 year local government bonds compared to the national average [4]. - The current value of 10-year local government bonds is seen as having a certain cost-performance advantage, with the yield spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 basis points at the upper end and 5-10 basis points at the lower end [4].