赵伟：机遇叠加、未来可期

Economic Outlook - The core theme of the speech is the economic outlook for 2026, emphasizing a "non-typical recovery" and the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a key period for policy and economic environment understanding [3][4] - The phrase "comprehensive efforts" indicates that policy implementation in development and reform areas will accelerate, while "strategic initiative" suggests an increase in proactive policy measures [3][4] Policy and Market Dynamics - Since 2025, there have been significant reforms aimed at accelerating service trade openness, which may further enhance domestic reform and development [4] - The fiscal policy remains positive, ensuring necessary fiscal spending and debt levels, while monetary policy emphasizes flexible and efficient use of tools like interest rate cuts [5][6] - The "cross-cycle" concept has returned, but it does not imply a reduction in growth stabilization efforts; instead, it indicates a commitment to maintaining strong fiscal policies [5][6] Structural Changes and Recovery - The "post-epidemic scar effect" is weakening, with indicators showing improved mobility and a recovery in certain sectors, suggesting a natural bottoming out of the economy [6][7] - The impact of tariff conflicts on the economy has diminished, with China's export structure improving and high-value-added goods gaining a larger share [7][8] - The recovery in 2026 is characterized by limited volume elasticity, with prices returning to normal levels, leading to a nominal GDP increase from approximately 4% in 2025 to around 5% in 2026 [8][9] Capital Market Insights - The relationship between the ten-year government bond yield and A-share dividend yield reflects market sentiment, which has shifted since 2022 due to concerns about China's long-term economic issues [10][11] - A significant change in investment behavior is noted, with overseas investors showing renewed interest in Chinese assets, driven by a shift in macroeconomic narratives and structural policies aimed at restoring corporate profitability [12][14] - The nominal GDP recovery is expected to continue influencing the "funds rebalancing" process, with the A-share market poised for potential gains as dividend yields align with bond yields [14][15] Currency and Investment Outlook - The worst economic pressures are believed to have passed, with expectations of a gradual appreciation of the RMB by 2-3% annually over the next few years, potentially attracting foreign investment [16][18] - The anticipated currency appreciation, combined with attractive interest rates, may lead to significant changes in foreign investment behavior towards Chinese markets [16][18]