【申万固收|信用周报】信用债ETF冲量规模回落，信用利差整体收窄——信用债市场周度跟踪（20260105-20260111）

Key Points - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds in the primary market increased on a month-on-month basis, with total issuance reaching 269.9 billion yuan and net financing at 131.1 billion yuan during the period from January 5 to January 11, 2026 [3][5] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 139.2 billion yuan, while net financing surged to 91.7 billion yuan. Conversely, local government bonds saw a significant increase in issuance to 130.7 billion yuan, the highest since November 2025, with net financing rising to 39.4 billion yuan [3][5] - In the secondary market, bond yields showed mixed performance, with overall credit spreads narrowing, particularly for 1-year bonds, which experienced the largest contraction [3][5] - The yield on 7-year bonds performed the best, with a decline of 2.36 basis points for AA+/AA/AA- rated local government bonds, while 5-year bonds saw an overall increase [3][5] - The trading volume of credit bond ETFs decreased significantly, with a net outflow of 55.3 billion yuan over four days, approaching 50% of the inflow seen in December 2025 [3][5] - The investment outlook for credit bonds remains favorable, with expectations of a stable bond market environment in the first quarter of 2026, despite potential pressures on credit spreads [3][5] - The strategy for credit investment focuses on short to medium-term credit bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 3-5 years, and emphasizes the opportunities presented by high-grade bonds [3][5] - The performance of various credit bonds is expected to vary, with short-term bonds outperforming longer-term bonds in terms of yield and credit spread [3][5][11]