通胀上行压力不大——12月美国通胀数据解读

Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year in December, aligning with expectations; the core CPI was at 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%; energy inflation continued to decline, offsetting the rebound in food prices, with core goods and services remaining low [2] Energy Inflation - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI dropped to 2.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; gasoline prices fell to -4.3% year-on-year, while electricity prices remained high at 6.7% [5] - The average price of Brent crude oil in December was $62.94 per barrel, down from $63.87, indicating a steady decline towards $60 due to oversupply in the oil market [5] - EIA data suggests a global oil market surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025, increasing to 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating continued pressure on oil prices [5] Automotive Inflation - Core goods year-on-year growth was recorded at 1.4%, unchanged from the previous month; new and used car prices continued to decline to 0.3% and 1.6% respectively [6] - Leading indicators suggest a potential marginal recovery in automotive inflation by Q1 2026, indicating possible improvements in durable goods consumption post Fed rate cuts in late 2025 [6] Service Inflation - Core services year-on-year growth remained flat at 3%, with housing holding steady at 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; high mortgage rates continue to suppress housing inflation [8] - Medical services saw a rebound of 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, countering the decline in transportation services, which have been affected by falling oil prices [8] Long-term Inflation Expectations - In January 2026, the one-year inflation expectation from Michigan consumers remained at 4.2%, while the five-year expectation increased to 3.4% from 3.2%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about inflation risks [10] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the dollar index fluctuated, and U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines; the two-year Treasury yield decreased by about 1 basis point to 3.53% [12] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June increased to 70% from 68%, with the likelihood of a rate cut in January dropping to 2.8% [12] - Overall, the continued low inflation in December suggests further potential for Fed rate cuts in the future [12]