LSEG跟“宗” | 美国就业市场急速恶化 但市场反延后美降息时间表预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, highlighting shifts in net long and short positions, particularly for gold, silver, platinum, and copper, as well as the implications of changing interest rate expectations on metal prices [2][28]. Group 1: Fund Positioning and Market Sentiment - As of January 6, net long positions for all metals except gold and copper have increased month-over-month, with palladium contracts returning to a net long position after two weeks of net short [2][6]. - The net long position for U.S. gold funds decreased by 2% to 386 tons, marking the lowest level in five weeks [2][6]. - The U.S. copper fund's short position has fallen to the lowest level recorded since 2007, indicating an overly optimistic sentiment in the market [2][16]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in March have dropped from 49.5% to 29.9%, and for April from 62.5% to 42.4%, with the first rate cut not expected to exceed 50% probability until June [2][28]. - The delay in the Fed's rate cut timeline may serve as a reason for potential softening in precious metal prices [2][28]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - The net long position for U.S. silver funds increased by 6% to 2,746 tons, the highest level in two weeks, despite a drop in long positions to the lowest since October 2013 [6][8]. - Platinum funds saw an 80% increase in net long positions, reaching 11 tons, the highest in two weeks, while short positions fell to the lowest level in 133 weeks [6][10]. - Gold prices have risen by 64.4% despite a contraction in net long positions, indicating strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [14][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the copper market has been influenced by expectations of strong demand due to AI and new technologies, leading to price increases and historical highs [16][30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio as a forward-looking indicator for gold prices [19][21]. - The silver-to-gold ratio is currently near historical averages, suggesting potential volatility in both directions [24][26].