绿色金融迈入“做强时代”：43.5万亿信贷、9千亿绿债背后的结构性转折

Core Viewpoint - China's green finance is undergoing a significant transition, shifting from a focus on quantity to efficiency and from policy-driven to mechanism-driven growth [2] Group 1: Green Credit - Green credit remains the core and stable pillar of China's green finance system, with a projected balance of approximately 43.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting an 18.9% increase from 36.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 [3][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, green loans contributed 6.47 trillion yuan to the total loan increment, accounting for 43.9% of the total loan growth, indicating a shift from a temporary policy tool to a normalized direction for bank lending [6] Group 2: Green Bonds - The green bond market has shown a significant recovery in 2025, with a cumulative issuance of approximately 914.9 billion yuan from January to November, surpassing the total of 681.4 billion yuan for 2024 and nearing the historical high of 2022 [7] - Financial institutions dominate the green bond issuance, with green financial bonds accounting for about 492.3 billion yuan, focusing on clean energy, green infrastructure, and low-carbon transition projects [7] Group 3: Carbon Market - As of November 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of the national carbon market reached 818 million tons, with a total transaction value of 54.575 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.81% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for 2025 [10] - The carbon market is characterized by stable transaction volumes but a downward trend in prices, indicating a "stable volume, weak price" market feature [10] Group 4: Strategic Transition - The period from 2024 to 2025 is identified as a critical transition point from "growth in quantity" to "optimization in structure" for green finance, with a shift in policy focus towards the quality of fund allocation, emission reduction performance, and risk constraints [13] - By 2026, green finance is expected to further establish its "infrastructure-type" position within the financial system, transitioning from thematic investments to long-term asset allocations [13]