Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 21世纪经济报道·2026-01-14 08:26Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its GDP growth forecasts for China for 2026 and 2027 to 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, marking the largest upward adjustment since 2019, driven by a new assessment of China's export prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs' optimistic outlook is based on three main factors: a positive global economic outlook, strong competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector, and a reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. [4][5]. - The bank predicts a 2.6% growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2026, which is higher than the market consensus of 2.0%, indicating stable demand for Chinese exports [4]. - The Chinese government's focus on building a modern industrial system and promoting technological self-reliance is expected to enhance China's competitive edge in global markets [4]. Group 2: Export Resilience - Approximately 80% of China's exports, including machinery, chemicals, and electronics, have shown a year-on-year growth rate between 5% and 15%, indicating broad resilience across various product categories [7][8]. - China's manufacturing costs are estimated to be 30% to 40% lower than those in other countries, contributing to the sustained growth of its exports despite tariff challenges [8]. Group 3: Currency Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by China's growing economic share in the global economy, which is around 20% for both GDP and trade [11]. - The RMB currently accounts for only 2% to 3% of the global currency system, indicating a mismatch that is likely to correct over time as China's economic influence increases [11]. - The Chinese government aims to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, especially in light of geopolitical risks, by promoting the RMB's use in international trade and finance [12]. Group 4: Consumer Spending - To effectively boost consumer spending, policies should focus on providing financial support to low-income individuals, such as job creation and income increases, rather than relying solely on short-term measures like subsidies [16][18]. - The government is increasingly recognizing the importance of consumer spending, with initiatives like childcare subsidies aimed at directly enhancing household financial capacity [18]. - A significant portion of overall consumption comes from government spending on public services, which could play a crucial role in driving future consumption growth [18].