结婚人数突然反弹，什么信号？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that marriage registrations in China are experiencing a significant rebound, with major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen leading this trend [4][5][12]. - In 2025, Shanghai recorded 125,000 marriage registrations, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%, while Shenzhen saw 118,900 registrations, up 28.54%, both reaching five-year highs [5][6]. - Nationwide, marriage registrations reached 5.122 million pairs in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 405,000 pairs or 8.6% year-on-year [7]. Group 2 - The article attributes the rebound in marriage registrations to a combination of short-term factors, such as the "double spring year" phenomenon, and long-term policy changes [18][21]. - The "double spring year" in 2025 is expected to encourage marriages due to cultural beliefs associated with auspicious timing [22][23]. - Policy changes, including the nationwide marriage registration system and the cancellation of household registration books, have made it easier for couples to marry, particularly benefiting cities with large populations of young migrants like Shanghai and Shenzhen [25][26][28]. Group 3 - The article discusses the potential impact of increased marriage registrations on birth rates, noting that marriage is traditionally seen as a precursor to childbirth in China [37][38]. - While there is typically a time lag between marriage and childbirth, the rebound in marriage numbers in 2025 may lead to an increase in birth rates in 2026 [41][42]. - The central government's emphasis on promoting marriage and childbirth indicates a strategic approach to stabilize and increase the birth population [42][43].