焦煤期权上市首日策略分享

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and provides strategies for trading these options based on supply and demand analysis leading up to the Chinese New Year [5][7]. Supply Analysis - The high volume of imported Mongolian coal continues to suppress coking coal prices, with daily customs clearance averaging 1,204 trucks per day since the New Year, despite a slight decrease compared to late 2025 [5]. - Recent data indicates that the daily customs clearance has exceeded 1,500 trucks, which contributes to a significant supply buffer for coking coal prices [5]. - Domestic coal mines have shown a slower-than-expected recovery post-New Year, warranting further observation for potential increases in domestic coal supply [5]. Demand Analysis - Current iron and steel production may have reached a temporary low, with winter stockpiling expected to support coking coal demand before the New Year [5]. - However, indications of a warmer winter suggest limited space for further stockpiling, which may hinder the formation of a sustained upward trend in demand [5]. Price and Trading Strategy - The recent price of the coking coal 2605 contract peaked at 1,246 RMB/ton, showing a slight premium over the cost of Mongolian raw coal, indicating potential for arbitrage [7]. - Given the current market conditions, the recommendation is to consider short-selling shallow out-of-the-money call options for the coking coal 2605 contract, particularly around the 1,240 RMB/ton mark [7]. - If coking coal prices break upward, it may be driven by further policy actions, suggesting a hedging strategy using out-of-the-money call options for the 2605 or 2609 contracts [8].