Macroeconomic Insights - US inflation remains moderate, with December CPI year-on-year growth at 2.7%, unchanged from November, and month-on-month growth at 0.3%, also stable since September. Core CPI year-on-year growth is at 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [1] - The structure of inflation shows weakness in goods and strength in services. Core goods month-on-month growth is 0%, primarily dragged down by used cars. Even excluding used cars, core goods growth remains low, while core services show a general month-on-month rebound [1] Short-term Inflation Outlook - Despite lower-than-expected inflation data, the market does not anticipate an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for the first rate cut still set for June 2026. Food inflation is expected to cool gradually, while used car prices may see marginal rebounds, and rent remains stable [2] Financial Engineering Strategies - The quantitative model signals a recommendation to overweight small-cap stocks in January, with a model signal of 0.17 indicating a preference for small caps. The model's return as of the end of December is 27.56%, outperforming the equal-weight benchmark by 0.71% [4] - For value and growth styles, the model signal is neutral, suggesting an equal-weight allocation between the two styles. The model's return is 22.72%, with an excess return of 1.93% over the benchmark [4] Fixed Income Insights - Concerns about long-term bond supply do not necessarily imply a tightening of interbank liquidity. The central bank's support is expected to keep liquidity stable, with funding rates likely remaining low in the first quarter of 2026 [10] - The central bank's ability to smooth out funding fluctuations has improved, with a flexible approach to liquidity management anticipated. If necessary, measures such as large-scale MLF injections or reserve requirement ratio cuts may be employed [12]
国泰海通 · 晨报260115｜宏观、金融工程 、固收
国泰海通证券研究·2026-01-14 12:25