【广发宏观郭磊】出口超预期收官：总结2025年四大结构特征

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of Chinese manufacturing in the global market, with exports showing a significant growth of 6.6% year-on-year in December 2025, surpassing market expectations. The overall annual export growth for 2025 is projected at 5.5% [1][5][10]. Group 1: Export Performance - December 2025 exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market average expectation of 2.2% [1][5]. - Monthly exports in December showed a month-on-month increase of 8.4%, well above the five-year average of 4.7%, contributing to an annual growth rate of 5.5% [1][5]. - Exports to Hong Kong in December contributed marginally, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. Excluding Hong Kong, the year-on-year export growth was 4.4% [9]. Group 2: Economic Contributions - For 2025, exports and "two new" investments (equipment and tools) are key drivers of the economy, with the latter showing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in the first eleven months, partially offsetting declines in investment and real estate [2][10]. - The export growth in 2025 is characterized by a shift towards high-end manufacturing products, with high-end products like automobiles and integrated circuits showing significant growth [3][14]. Group 3: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the US accounted for 11.1% of total exports, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from 2024. In contrast, combined exports to ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, and India rose to 35.1%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points [2][11]. - The combined export share to the four southern regions has surpassed that to the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea, indicating a strategic shift in trade relationships [11]. Group 4: Product Composition - The share of labor-intensive products in exports decreased to 9.5% in 2025, while high-end manufacturing products increased to 10.6% [3][14]. - Notable growth in non-high-end manufacturing products includes steel billets (120.2% increase), cement (55.9% increase), and fertilizers (61.5% increase) [15]. Group 5: Import Trends - Imports in December 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, significantly higher than the trend value, but the annual import growth for 2025 is projected to be zero [4][15]. - The low import growth is attributed to inflation in Europe and the US, which has affected the price competitiveness of consumer goods, and a lack of systematic inventory replenishment in domestic enterprises [4][15].