到2030年，美国死亡人数将首次超过出生人数

Core Viewpoint - The United States is approaching a significant demographic shift where natural population growth (births exceeding deaths) will cease to exist by 2030, marking a critical turning point for the economy and social structure [2][3]. Group 1: Demographic Changes - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that by 2030, the annual number of deaths will surpass births due to declining birth rates and an aging population, making net immigration the sole source of population growth [2][3]. - The total fertility rate is expected to drop to 1.53 children per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, contributing to this demographic shift [3]. - The aging "Baby Boomer" generation is entering higher mortality age brackets, leading to an increase in annual death rates [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The increase in the retired population, coupled with a shrinking labor force, will elevate the "old-age dependency ratio," which has decreased from 5:1 in 1960 to 3:1 today, and is projected to fall to approximately 2:1 by the mid-2050s [6]. - The shrinking labor force will exert significant pressure on federal budgets, particularly on Social Security and Medicare, which rely heavily on payroll taxes that will be adversely affected by stagnant population growth [6]. - Economic growth will increasingly depend on technological advancements and artificial intelligence, as labor force growth stagnates, leading to a "jobless recovery" scenario [6].