硬AI·2026-01-14 15:22Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in artificial intelligence infrastructure construction is shifting from the pursuit of GPU quantity to the competition for power supply speed, with "Time-to-Power" becoming the most severe bottleneck in AI construction [1][2]. Group 1: Power Supply Challenges - The average lifespan of power grids in the US and EU has reached 35 to 40 years, and the infrastructure is increasingly fragile in the face of explosive energy demands from AI data centers (AIDC) [1][2]. - The domestic power equipment capacity in the US can only meet about 40% of local demand, with waiting times for grid connection extending to nearly five years [1][2]. - This structural shortage is reshaping the pricing power in the supply chain, with qualified Chinese suppliers gaining advantages not just from lower costs but from shorter delivery times [1][3]. Group 2: Market Growth and Demand - Goldman Sachs projects that by 2030, electricity consumption by US data centers (including AI and non-AI) will increase by approximately 175% compared to 2023, contributing about 120 basis points to overall electricity demand [5]. - The overall addressable market for AI data center power products is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 39% from 2025 to 2030, covering various product categories [7][8]. Group 3: Product Prioritization - Goldman Sachs has provided a clear preference ranking for Chinese power supply-related product categories: gas turbine blades > power transformers > electrical components > uninterruptible power supplies/power racks > liquid cooling systems > server power [3][16]. - Gas turbine blades rank highest due to high material science and manufacturing barriers, while power transformers follow due to labor-intensive manufacturing and lengthy certification cycles [17]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages of Chinese Suppliers - The decisive competitive advantage for qualified Chinese suppliers is not only lower costs but also shorter delivery cycles, which have become the primary decision factor for data center operators and utility companies [10]. - Companies like Siyi Electric have gained market share in the US due to their short delivery cycles, with expected revenue from the US market increasing from 26% in 2026 to 28% in 2028 of their overseas income [10]. Group 5: Pricing Power and Profit Margins - Due to severe supply shortages, Chinese suppliers can achieve significant price premiums in overseas markets, ranging from 10% to 80% compared to domestic sales [12]. - For example, Siyi Electric's products have a gross margin of about 45% in the US, compared to 30% domestically, indicating a substantial profit margin increase despite potential tariffs and logistics costs [12].