数据点评 | 为何12月出口“再超预期”？（申万宏源·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The December export performance was supported by pricing effects, new product launches, and improvements in external demand, with exports increasing by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing expectations of 2.2% and the previous value of 5.9% [2][9][79] Group 1: Export Performance - December exports showed a strong performance, reflecting both structural and aggregate factors, with a 0.7 percentage point increase from November [2][10] - The appreciation of the RMB since November contributed to a pricing effect that boosted December's total exports by 0.4 percentage points [2][10] - Exports of consumer electronics and production materials improved significantly, driven by new smartphone launches and a trend of recovering external demand, particularly from emerging economies and U.S. inventory replenishment [2][3][10] Group 2: Country-Level Analysis - Exports to emerging economies remained strong, with a 1.4 percentage point increase to 13.5% year-on-year, while exports to developed economies showed a decline [2][17] - Notable increases in exports to ASEAN and India were recorded, with respective rises of 2.9 and 14 percentage points [2][17] - Exports to the U.S. decreased slightly by 1.5 percentage points, while exports to Europe fell by 3.3 percentage points [2][17] Group 3: Commodity-Level Insights - Consumer electronics exports rose by 16.3 percentage points to 19.6%, with significant contributions from smartphone and data processing equipment exports [3][25] - Production materials such as aluminum, integrated circuits, and steel saw export growth rates of 23.9%, 13.6%, and 3.5% respectively [3][25] - Import data indicated a recovery in processing trade imports, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points to 5.7% [3][32] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing improvement in external demand and China's competitive export advantages are expected to sustain strong export resilience into 2026 [4][40] - The industrialization acceleration in emerging countries is anticipated to increase demand for imported production materials, further supporting China's export growth [4][40] - Potential easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions and continued inventory replenishment in the U.S. may lead to a rebound in exports to the U.S. [4][41]