【宏观】通胀担忧缓和，但短期降息必要性不强——2025年12月美国CPI数据点评（赵格格/刘星辰）

Core Viewpoints - The December US CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, matching market expectations, while the core CPI year-on-year rose by 2.6%, slightly below expectations of 2.7% [4][6] - The mild rebound in core CPI was influenced by a decline in used car and truck prices, indicating that tariffs have a limited impact on inflation [5][7] - Despite easing inflation concerns, the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first quarter remains low, with expectations for the first cut still set for June [5][9] Group 1: December US Inflation Data - December core CPI reading was lower than market expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [6][9] - The inflation rebound was less than anticipated due to price declines in used cars and trucks, which offset increases in food, clothing, housing, medical care services, and transportation services [7][8] - Food prices increased by 0.7%, clothing by 0.6%, housing by 0.4%, medical care services by 0.4%, and transportation services by 0.5% month-on-month, while used car and truck prices fell by 1.1% [7] Group 2: Future Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy - The focus will be on January's corporate product repricing, as limited impact from tariffs on US inflation suggests the end of this inflationary cycle [8] - The market anticipates a 48.1% probability of a Fed rate cut in June, up from 46.2% prior to the inflation data release [9] - The labor market shows resilience with a decline in the unemployment rate, and a large tax refund is expected in the first quarter, reducing the necessity for immediate rate cuts [9]