中金2026年展望 | 钢铁：新变革，新驱动，新均衡

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to remain in a trend of demand reduction and structural adjustment through 2026, with limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics and profitability. However, the structural changes brought about by anti-involution are noteworthy, focusing on two main lines: differentiated production control and the acceleration of domestic substitution in high-end steel materials, benefiting leading special steel companies [2][6]. Supply Dynamics - The steel industry is entering a new phase of "reduction and quality improvement," with increasing differentiation and structural changes. The tightening of capacity replacement policies and the promotion of green transformation are expected to drive differentiated production control, benefiting ESG-compliant companies [6][20]. - The new capacity replacement implementation measures are becoming stricter, signaling a gradual solidification of the industry's capacity ceiling. Companies unable to meet the new standards may exit the market, reshaping the competitive landscape [21][20]. Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with sales and new construction areas declining significantly. The forecast for 2026 indicates a further reduction in real estate steel demand by 5.3% [23]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to see marginal improvement, with a projected 2.8% increase in steel demand for infrastructure in 2026, driven by government debt management and project funding optimization [23]. - Manufacturing demand is anticipated to grow, with a 1.7% increase in steel consumption expected in 2026, supported by high-tech manufacturing and equipment upgrades [24]. Price and Profitability Outlook - The black series prices are expected to seek a new equilibrium, with projections for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel prices to decline to 2960, 3050, and 3850 yuan per ton, respectively, in 2026. The gross profit margins for these products are forecasted to be 127, 66, and 346 yuan per ton, showing year-on-year increases [5][28]. - The profitability of steel companies is expected to improve moderately as raw material prices decline, with the gross profit margins projected to be below the historical median [28][29]. Investment Opportunities - The focus is on high-quality cash flow assets that are undervalued and leading in green transformation, which are likely to see a recovery in profitability and value reassessment [2][38]. - The special steel sector is poised for growth, driven by domestic substitution and the increasing demand from advanced manufacturing sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for leading special steel companies [39][41].