能化多数上涨：申万期货早间评论-20260115

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upward trend in various commodities, driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation data and trade statistics, indicating potential investment opportunities in energy and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI and core PPI increased by 3% year-on-year in November, surpassing market expectations of 2.7%, primarily due to rising energy costs [1]. - China's foreign trade in 2025 is projected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, marking nine consecutive years of growth [1]. - In December, China's exports of rare earths surged by 32% to 4,392 tons, with total annual exports reaching 62,585 tons [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures saw a majority increase in night trading, with energy products leading the gains; fuel oil rose by 3.13% and polypropylene by 1.23% [1]. - Precious metals are experiencing high volatility, supported by easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, which bolster gold's long-term upward trend [2]. - The palm oil market remains weak, with Malaysia's December palm oil production at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The U.S. stock indices fell, with the technology sector leading gains and the banking sector declining; the market's trading volume was 3.99 trillion yuan [4]. - The financing balance increased by 9.402 billion yuan to 26.65391 trillion yuan on January 13 [4]. - The stock market's positive trend in 2026 is attributed to the convergence of technology cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The adjustment of financing margin ratios by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, increasing the minimum margin from 80% to 100%, is expected to impact new financing contracts [8][9]. - The overall economic activity in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve districts showed slight to moderate growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending during the holiday shopping season [7].