追涨前必读：基金的“好业绩”是否具有持续性？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of equity funds, highlighting that while some funds have achieved impressive returns, the sustainability of such performance is questionable. Investors should be cautious about chasing high-performing funds without understanding the underlying factors driving their success [2][15][31]. Group 1: Fund Performance Analysis - In 2025, 85 funds achieved over 100% annual returns, including 74 active equity funds and 11 index funds and ETFs [2]. - The best-performing sectors in 2025 were telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, with returns exceeding 80% [5][14]. - Concentrated investments in high-performing sectors were key to achieving significant returns, as seen in funds like Yongying Technology Select, which allocated over 90% of its assets to telecommunications and electronics [6][11]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Sustainability - Historical data shows that funds with outstanding performance in previous bull markets often fail to maintain their top rankings in subsequent years [17][18]. - For instance, in the 2021 bull market, very few funds that ranked in the top quartile were able to sustain that performance over the following five years [17][18]. - Similar trends were observed in bear markets, indicating that high performance is not consistently repeatable across different market conditions [19][20]. Group 3: Randomness of Performance - The probability of a fund maintaining its top quartile ranking from one year to the next is around 30%, which is only slightly better than random chance [24][28]. - Both active and passive funds exhibit similar performance randomness, with last quartile funds having a higher likelihood of remaining in the bottom tier the following year [26][28]. Group 4: Challenges in Maintaining Performance - The article emphasizes that the short-term performance of funds is often random, making it difficult to predict future success based on past results [31][35]. - The concentration in specific sectors that leads to high returns can be risky, as market conditions change and may not favor the same sectors in the future [35][36]. - Investors should be cautious about blindly following past high performers without a solid understanding of market dynamics and sector rotations [36][39].