2026固收投资蓝图：基金经理的开局布局与展望

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the domestic economy in 2025 amidst fluctuations, highlighting the stable performance of exports and manufacturing as a counterbalance to the downward pressure in real estate and investment sectors, leading to a gradual recovery in market risk appetite [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - In 2026, the core growth drivers of the domestic economy are expected to be diversified, with policy guidance and market forces working in tandem to support a stable recovery [2] - Export resilience continues to play a stabilizing role, with increased export growth to regions like ASEAN and Africa due to trade substitution and effective matching of industrial demands [3] - New productive forces, such as smart manufacturing and artificial intelligence, are driving industrial integration and are expected to offset the downturn in real estate and external tariff shocks [4] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Fiscal Support - Domestic consumption is anticipated to remain strong, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand, with retail sales growth expected to maintain a relatively high level [5] - Investment is projected to stabilize and increase, with ample central investment project reserves and a continued emphasis on proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [5] Group 3: Potential Risks - The real estate market is in a deep adjustment phase, with risks of a slowdown potentially dragging down GDP and spreading credit risks within the sector [6] - External economic and trade environments remain uncertain, with geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism posing risks to export contributions to the economy [6] Group 4: Fixed Income Investment Strategies - In 2026, the pure bond market is expected to continue a volatile pattern, focusing on coupon income and structural opportunities [10] - Investment strategies will vary among fund managers, with a focus on high-grade credit bonds and flexible operations in interest rate bonds to enhance returns [10][14][18] - The solid performance of equity markets is expected to provide opportunities for fixed income products, with a focus on diversified asset allocation to balance risk and return [21][29] Group 5: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers emphasize the importance of focusing on coupon income and structural opportunities in credit bonds, while also being cautious about long-term bonds [19][20] - The outlook for fixed income+ products is positive, with expectations of higher returns compared to pure bond products due to structural opportunities in the equity market [24] - Investment strategies should prioritize diversified portfolios to mitigate risks and enhance returns, particularly in the current low-interest-rate environment [30]