独家洞察 | 美国通胀「降温」，但尚不足以支撑降息

Core Insights - The article discusses the continued decline in U.S. inflation levels, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching a low not seen since March 2021, indicating a more controllable inflation environment [2][4]. Inflation Data Analysis - In December, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with November figures and market expectations [2]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021 [2]. - Certain categories like clothing and entertainment rebounded in December after a weak November, while new and used car prices continued to decline, affecting core goods inflation [4]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The easing inflation data has reignited discussions about a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy, with some investors speculating on an early signal for easing [4]. - However, inflation remaining above the 2% target and a resilient labor market suggest the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious stance to avoid premature policy loosening [4]. - Market expectations for a rate cut at the January meeting are low, with only a 1.7% probability for a 25 basis point cut, indicating a prevailing expectation to keep rates unchanged [4]. Future Projections - Huatai Securities maintains the view that the Fed will delay rate cuts until at least May, citing factors like data collection delays and limited upward pressure from tariffs [5]. - The forecast for the core CPI has been adjusted down by 0.3 percentage points to 3% for 2026, reflecting a more tempered outlook on inflation [5]. - The Fed's short-term lack of urgency to cut rates is attributed to a resilient job market and inflation not yet reaching the 2% target [5]. Political and Institutional Concerns - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces legal challenges that could complicate the monetary policy environment, with concerns about the independence of the Fed being raised [6]. - A collective statement from former Fed chairs and Treasury secretaries opposes criminal investigations into the Fed's leadership, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence [6][7]. - The potential for political interference in monetary policy raises concerns about inflation expectations and the Fed's ability to maintain a tight policy stance [6][7].