铜：中场休息时刻

Core Viewpoint - The logic supporting copper price increases has not significantly changed, and after the adjustment, there is potential for a rebound. The first quarter is typically a low season, and without new drivers, prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival. Post-holiday, with resumption of work and tight spot supply, copper prices may rise again. The short-term price range is expected to be Hu copper [94,000, 120,000] CNY/ton and LME copper [12,000, 15,000] USD/ton. The strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips [2][12]. Focus Point 1: Convergence of US-LME Price Spread - Recently, the US-LME price spread has converged, primarily due to delays or cancellations of US copper tariffs, influenced by the postponement of timber tariff increases. The market anticipates potential exemptions for silver tariffs, which may similarly affect copper tariffs. Additionally, US copper imports are concentrated at the end of December, with COMEX inventories reaching 500,000 tons. Future tariff expectations may still fluctuate [5]. Focus Point 2: Continuous Supply Disruptions - Supply disruptions at the mining level continue to be frequent, exacerbating expectations of tight raw material supply. The global copper concentrate production is projected to increase from 1,888 million tons in 2023 to 1,957 million tons by 2026, with a growth rate of 2.3%. However, the balance of supply and demand indicates a deficit of 2.3 million tons in 2023, which is expected to widen to 154.5 million tons by 2025 [6][8][10]. Focus Point 3: High Prices Significantly Suppress Downstream Consumption - High copper prices have led to a notable decline in downstream consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping from an average of 64% in December to 48%. Social inventories accumulated nearly 80,000 tons in December, with an additional 54,000 tons in January. The weak performance in consumption limits the upward momentum of prices, indicating that downstream sectors need time to adjust to the current price levels [10][13].